CHARLOTTE (QUEEN CITY NEW/WNCN) -- If you're stepping out in the Charlotte area this Thursday, be ready for another muggy morning with showers and storms kicking things off. Temperatures are already in the 70s, and dew points in the low 70s make for a sticky start.
Storms are expected to ease up through the morning, giving way to a few peeks of sunshine before more storms develop in the mountains and track toward I-40 this afternoon. These should clear out by dinner, leaving behind clouds across parts of uptown.
MORE: Thursday warm and rainy with a little sunshine for CarolinasToday’s high will climb to around 87 degrees, but it’ll feel more like the low 90s thanks to the humidity. Winds will be light, coming from the south-southwest at 3 to 8 mph. Tonight, expect partly cloudy skies with warm temps dipping to around 73 degrees.
Looking ahead, Friday will be hot and mostly dry with a high near 90. The weekend brings more classic summer weather, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Saturday could bring a few pop-up storms, but Sunday is looking mostly sunny and dry.
Tropical Storm Erin: A low chance for North Carolina
The odds of Tropical Storm or Hurricane Erin hitting North Carolina next week are only 6%, according to historical records going back 175 years.
Since 1850, which is as far back as accurate hurricane records go, there have been 51 storms that were within 50 miles of the current position of Tropical Storm Erin as of Wednesday evening. Of those 51 storms, only three made landfall in North Carolina, which is just shy of 6%.
Most of the named storms over that time period stayed out to sea and did not make landfall at all in North Carolina.
Two of the storms stayed far enough south to make it into the Gulf.
Two of the storms happened in the same month back in 1955 — Hurricane Connie and Tropical Storm Diane. Hurricane Six made landfall back in 1933, before storms were given names.
CBS 17 Chief Meteorologist Wes Hohenstein calculated this information using an extensive database.
“While this historical information has no bearing on the forecast for this year's Tropical Storm Erin, it is interesting to note how hard it is for a tropical system to make it to North Carolina,” Hohenstein points out. “Most storms in Erin's current position curve out to see and never make landfall in the United States.”
The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center eventually strengthens Erin to a major, Category 3 hurricane later this weekend just north of the Caribbean.
Many of the computer models turn the storm north early next week and bring it between Bermuda and the east coast of the U.S., coming closest to North Carolina by next Wednesday.
The historical records have no impact on this year’s forecast. The current forecast will also have to be watched for changes. While it is looking more likely that the East Coast will avoid a direct hit, the forecast will evolve in the coming days.
This is a Developing Story. Check back for updates
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