The provisional rate will be set at 75.8%, effective from Thursday, the Ministry of Commerce said in a statement.
ICE November canola futures fell as much as 6.5% to a four-month low after the announcement.
China, the world’s largest importer of canola, also known as rapeseed, sources nearly all its supplies of the product from Canada. The steep duties would likely all but end imports if they are maintained.
China imposed tariffs on canola oil and meal in March.
China’s Ministry of Commerce said an anti-dumping probe launched in September 2024 had found that Canada’s agricultural sector - particularly the canola industry - had benefited from substantial government subsidies and preferential policies.
A final ruling could result in a different rate, or overturn Tuesday’s decision.
“This move ... will put additional pressure on Canada’s government to sort through trade frictions with China,“ said Trivium China agriculture analyst Even Rogers Pay.
Canada has imposed tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, steel and aluminum.
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China uses imported canola to make animal feed for its aquaculture sector, as well as for cooking oil.
Australia, the second-largest canola exporter, has been shut out of the Chinese market since 2020 due mainly to Chinese rules to stop the spread of fungal plant disease.
Davison said his industry believes China will need Canada’s canola to meet the sort of demand it has experienced in recent years.
Canadian farmers are about to begin harvesting canola and will not be happy to see prices plunge, said Canadian Canola Growers Association President Rick White. As long as the prohibitive duty is there farmers face suppressed prices.
Commodity funds have a substantial long position in ICE canola futures, traders said, which should add fuel to the selloff fire.
Another trader said there was already downward pressure coming into canola prices as Canada’s crop is widely believed to be bigger than many previously forecast due to good weather.
“Is it a negotiating tactic? Or does China put it in and that’s that?,“ Derwin asked. ($1=1.3754 Canadian dollars) - Reuters
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