So, will this be the month that happens?
Goldman Sachs argues that it won't be as straightforward and the firm is noting that we might just see more impact from China tariffs rather than reciprocal tariffs as a whole. But in looking to the months ahead, we should start to see more impact now that trade discussions look to be more settled after the 1 August deadline.
"Our estimates imply that foreign exporters had absorbed 14% of the cost of all tariffs implemented so far through June, but that their share will rise to 25% if the more recent tariffs follow the same pattern as the earliest tariffs on China. We find that US consumers had absorbed 22% of tariff costs through June but that their share will rise to 67% if the recent tariffs follow the same pattern as the earliest ones. This implies that US businesses have absorbed more than half of the tariff costs so far but that their share will fall to less than 10%.
Our analysis implies that tariff effects have boosted the core PCE price level by 0.20% so far. We expect another 0.16% impact in July, followed by an additional 0.5% from August through December. This would leave core PCE inflation at 3.2% year-over-year in December, assuming that the underlying inflation trend net of tariff effects is 2.4%."
The uptick in core goods inflation is something to be wary about. So, keep a close eye on that as well.
As for a softer set of readings, I think it wouldn't be too much of a stretch to think that markets might get carried away into debating between a 25 bps and a 50 bps for next month. That until Fed policymakers feel like they might have to push back on the latter that is. If not, will we get a repeat of 2024? That will certainly keep things interesting towards the tail end of summer.
Here are some of the other analyst estimates before the release later (h/t @ MNI):
Citi: Core 0.29% m/m, 3.08% y/y | Headline 0.24% m/m, 2.81% y/yBofA: Core 0.31% m/m, 3.1% y/y | Headline 0.24% m/mJP Morgan: Core 0.34% m/m, 3.1% y/y | Headline 0.26% m/m, 2.78% y/yDeutsche: Core 0.32% m/m, 3.0% y/y | Headline 0.24% m/m, 2.8% y/yMorgan Stanley: Core 0.3% m/m, 3.0% y/y | Headline 0.3% m/m, 2.76% y/yWells Fargo: Core 0.27% m/m, 3.0% y/y | Headline 0.19% m/m, 2.72% y/y This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.Hence then, the article about is this the month where tariffs will show up on consumer prices was published today ( ) and is available on forex live ( Middle East ) The editorial team at PressBee has edited and verified it, and it may have been modified, fully republished, or quoted. You can read and follow the updates of this news or article from its original source.
Read More Details
Finally We wish PressBee provided you with enough information of ( Is this the month where tariffs will show up on consumer prices? )
Also on site :
- One person in critical condition following two-vehicle collision on SR-126 at Boosey Road
- Supermarket timings for Boxing Day and New Year revealed for Asda, Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Aldi, Lidl and more
- Trump rants about Epstein in Christmas Day post claiming he dropped ties with sex offender ‘long before it became fashionable’