Despite avoiding a major global recession, higher tariffs are expected to slow world oil demand sharply in 2025, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. The group now forecasts demand growth of 635,000 barrels a day — less than half the 1.3 million b/d projected before U.S. President Donald Trump’s April tariff announcements.
Major traders have echoed the softer outlook. Glencore reported an 88% year-on-year drop in energy and steelmaking coal trade in the first half, while Trafigura warned markets could slow further following preemptive buying ahead of tariffs.
S&P notes that the stability of tariff policy will be key, with upcoming decisions on Mexico, China and Russian trade partners likely to shape the global demand picture.
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