HSBC expects further JPY weakness, BOJ may wait for Fed before next hike ...Middle East

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U.S. monetary policy risks, domestic political uncertainty, and cautiousness from the Bank of Japan.

While HSBC economists believe the BoJ’s recent upward revisions to its inflation and growth forecasts strengthen the case for a 25 basis point rate hike in October, they note that the central bank may choose to wait for the Federal Reserve to act first before moving further toward policy normalisation.

Firstly, USD/JPY remains highly sensitive to

strong U.S. economic data,

Secondly, the USD/JPY pair has recently been tracking Japanese government bond (JGB) yields, which remain under pressure amid growing domestic uncertainty.

HSBC highlights risks stemming from potential shifts in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership and concerns over Japan’s fiscal trajectory. If political leaders lean toward more pro-easing fiscal or monetary policies, HSBC warns, the yen could weaken further.

The note underscores the complex cross-currents facing the JPY, with global rate dynamics and local political risks both contributing to its vulnerability.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

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