Russia said it would no longer adhere to a treaty prohibiting the use of intermediate-range missiles, shortly before US-Russia talks on reaching a ceasefire in the war are scheduled in Moscow.
The announcement came three days after Trump ordered the repositioning of two US nuclear submarines to “the appropriate regions” in response to “highly provocative statements” made by former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.
Russia’s Security Council’s Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev is known for his extreme anti-Western outbursts on social media (Photo: Alexei Maishev/ Reuters/ Sputnik)
“Each new ultimatum is a threat and a step towards war,” Medvedev posted on social media. The remarks led Trump to reposition the nuclear submarines “just in case these foolish and inflammatory statements are more than just that”.
Rather, the move puts “chips on the table that can be used in negotiation” ahead of ceasefire talks between US special envoy Steve Witkoff and Kremlin officials expected to take place this week.
Officially confirming Russia’s withdrawal from the treaty, Medvedev said the move was the result of “Nato countries’ anti-Russian policy”.
A US nuclear submarine during military exercises in 2022. Trump ordered the deployment of two nuclear submarines on 1 August (Photo: Colombian National Navy / AFP)
Experts suggest that Russia may not be hugely worried by Trump’s threats, which have repeatedly come to nothing.
“It is a lot of bluster and since January Trump has de facto supported the Russian position,” he said. “He’s made a few threats/ ultimatums, but there’s been no consistency or follow-through.”
“Russia might well talk about making some further steps in response. It’s unlikely to do anything substantive that might risk provoking another escalation, but it’s the uncertainty that it might do something at any point that best serves Russia.”
She told The i Paper: “I think that this should be viewed more from the perspective of putting chips on the table that can be used in negotiation. Generally, if the US were going to engage in a significant act against Russia it would be unlikely to be announced on social media first.
US envoy Steve Witkoff is expected to visit Moscow on Wednesday or Thursday(Photo: Mandel Ngan / AFP via Getty Images)“Signalling the presence of submarines who may have been routinely there anyway allows for saving face publicly without escalating the situation and paving the way for Witkoff’s engagement once he arrives.”
What will Russia’s withdrawal mean on the ground?
Dr March described Russia’s withdrawal from the INF as “an acceleration of existing trends”, saying Russia has already deployed the missiles prohibited by the treaty “and may well do so more frequently”.
“It won’t change much materially in the coming months. But clearly it opens the way to a new escalation.”
A RS-24 Yars intercontinental ballistic missile system drives across Red Square during the Victory Day military parade in central Moscow in May (Photo by Kirill Kudryavtsev / AFP)“Yes, ground-launch missiles like the Oreshnik are relevant, but the Ukrainians’ bigger problem is the large salvos [of unmanned Shahed drones] and air- and sea-launched cruise missiles that they’re dealing with.
Asked which weapons posed a threat to European countries, Dr Kaushal pointed to the SSC-8, a Russian cruise missile which caused the US to pull out of the INF.
Dr March said he had “no illusions and no expectations of any breakthrough” during upcoming Witkoff’s visit to Russia.
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Read MoreAsked what could come after Trump’s deadline for Russia to agree to a ceasefire this week, he said: “Nothing – it’s all been bluster so far. I don’t see a ceasefire happening, or if it does it will be a heavily conditioned one while Russia tries to play for time and increase the military balance in its favour.”
“Even if Trump, against expectations, ramps up sanctions and weapons deliveries because he is disappointed in Putin, it won’t be to the level under Biden, and won’t undo the military and propaganda advantage that Trump has given Russia in the last 5 months. I’d very much like to be wrong.”
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