This is not because everyone is now relaxed about increases in noise and pollution for up to 10 million people, rises in C02, the closure and diversion of Britain’s busiest road, the destruction of two entire villages and the eviction of thousands from their homes. Nor is it because everyone now agrees with the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, that this two-mile concrete strip is Britain’s single most important growth project.
Indeed, it’s not clear if even Heathrow itself wants to be taken seriously when it claims the first planes could fly in 10 years, that the scheme will be “100 per cent privately financed” at “no cost to the taxpayer”, that there will be “lower fares” as a result and that a 57 per cent increase in flights is “compatible with meeting our net zero commitments”.
‘Rachel Reeves, I imagine, seized on this turkey because she was worried about growth and needed a big announcement’ (Photo: Ian Forsyth/Getty)
Nearly £60bn to find, then (in practice, of course, certainly more). But Heathrow’s current net debt, £17bn, is already 80 per cent of its entire asset value. Would anyone really agree to lend them four or five times more, albeit spread over a long period and on a bigger asset base?
The passenger experience would be worse, as well as more expensive. At least one of the two new terminals would not be on the Tube or the Elizabeth line; you’d take a shuttle train from the existing Terminal 5. The central-area terminals would be rebuilt, with most gates in satellites, and far more shuttle train rides. Driving from London to the current T5, you’d need to go right round the southern edge of the airport, because the A4 road would be closed.
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The greatest risk to taxpayers, though, is that – as with HS2 – project costs, underplayed to get things started, rise. Heathrow then runs out of money, and the Government has to rescue the project.
We’ll now spend the next decade on debates, government announcements and court cases about Heathrow, all of them totally pointless. Let’s save ourselves the bother, and focus (as ministers, to be fair, are also doing) on the expansion plans of the other London and UK airports, almost every one of which is a cheaper, quicker and easier way of growing the economy, improving Britain’s already unrivalled international air links, increasing competition and cutting fares. They also further undermine the case for Heathrow expansion, such that if a third runway eventually did happen, nobody would want or need to fly from it.
Andrew Gilligan is head of transport and infrastructure at Policy Exchange and was special adviser to former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and transport adviser to Boris Johnson
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