He did concede that the reasonable assumption is that the tariffs might be a one-off increase in prices, but is not totally sure.
The September expectation for rate cut went from 68% to 49%. The expectation for October 1 from 83% to 69%.
1. Economic outlook
GDP and private domestic final purchases (PDFP) came in as expected.
Consumer spending has been very strong in recent years but is now slowing to a healthy level.
GDP is hard to interpret due to swings in net exports.
2. Inflation
Expects PCE to rise 2.5% and core PCE 2.7% year-over-year through June.
Goods inflation is drifting away from target, but not very far.
A reasonable base case is that this is a one-time increase in price levels, but that’s uncertain.
Inflation risks exist on both sides: higher inflation and higher unemployment.
Unemployment is low and remains in a narrow range.
Job creation has slowed, especially in the private sector.
There are downside risks in the labor market.
The main number to watch now is the unemployment rate.
4. Policy stance and outlook
Powell believes the stance leaves the Fed well-positioned to respond in a timely way.
No decision has been made for September; two employment and inflation reports are due before then.
Expects to have more data soon to better assess inflation and employment.
The Fed does not consider the cost to government of rate changes to preserve credibility.
Tariffs have added uncertainty and begun impacting consumer prices.
Consumers and retailers will share some cost of the tariffs.
6. Governance and communication
Dissents from Waller and Bowman will be explained soon.
Having an independent central bank has served the public well.
Government data is the "gold standard" and essential for decision-making.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.Hence then, the article about what were the trends in the powell comments by topic was published today ( ) and is available on forex live ( Middle East ) The editorial team at PressBee has edited and verified it, and it may have been modified, fully republished, or quoted. You can read and follow the updates of this news or article from its original source.
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