Fed Preview: Holding Steady Amid Tariff Uncertainty and Political Pressure ...Middle East

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Since then, tariffs have blunted the disinflationary trend. While headline inflation has not surged, the downward momentum has stalled, and underlying goods prices have shown signs of firming. On the positive side, services inflation has moderated, providing some balance.

Despite signs of labor market softening, Powell believes the Fed is in a "good place" to remain on hold and observe how the economy evolves. That said, political pressure is mounting. President Trump has renewed his attacks, labeling Powell “Too Slow,” and insisting on rate cuts—even after 3.0% GDP growth in Q2. Trump is focused on Making America Great Again and a little inflation is nothing to worry about.

So what are the key focal points

Tone of the statement: Markets will parse every word of the statement for clues on whether the Fed is leaning more dovish or hawkish. The balance of risks section—if adjusted—could reveal whether the Committee is growing more concerned about weakening growth or persistent inflation. Pay attention to any changes in the statement "Uncertainty about the economic outlook has dimished by remains elevated"

Growth vs. inflation debate: Its the economy stupid and although Powell is concerned about inflation, the data will tell the story for the dual mandate.

Market pricing reflects a cautious Fed, with futures implying no rate cuts before November or December, and even then, only modest easing.

If Trump is the Deal Maker. Powell is the Rate Maker. It is Powell's stage today, but there could be the dissenters too which the Fed Chair will have to manage in his press conference.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

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