A comprehensive FOMC preview ...Middle East

STATEMENT

The most notable change is expected in the last few lines of the statement where it's shown how members voted on policy. Waller is widely expected to dissent and voting for a 25 bps cut at this meeting already. Another potential dissenter expected to vote for a 25 bps cut is Bowman.

Waller and Bowman are the only dovish members now and they are absolutely trumped by all the others who prefer one or two cuts by the end of the year.

Fed Chair Powell will likely open the door for a rate cut in September but he will reiterate that it will be conditional to the data. Weaker labour market or inflation readings will give them more conviction to lower rates, while strong data might delay such change. This is expected as the market is pricing basically 70% chance of a rate cut in September.

SUMMARY

This is all expected and from a trading perspective, it's new info and changes that offer good opportunities. If we get deviations from these expectations, then we should have some nice opportunities.

The biggest surprise (and a hawkish one) would be Waller voting to keep rates steady. This would highly likely trigger a rally in the US dollar and a selloff in the stock market and gold. On the bond market side, it would be trickier, but we might see lower long term yields as the market prices out the inflation risk premium.

In terms of dovish surprises, the biggest one would be a third dissenter. In this case, the stock market will likely rally while the US dollar would fall. I would also expect long term yields and gold to rise on higher inflation risk.

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This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

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