Following a round of U.S.–China trade meetings, Treasury Secretary Bessent described the overall tone as “very constructive,” emphasizing that the United States does not seek to decouple from China but instead aims to rebalance the relationship. He stressed that China’s global trade imbalances are unsustainable, warning that other developed economies may raise tariff barriers and that the Global South cannot absorb China’s excess industrial production. Bessent underscored that national security remains a core priority, noting that U.S. secondary tariff legislation targeting sanctioned Russian oil could expose China to steep tariffs if it continues such purchases. He confirmed that the U.S. and Chinese sides are becoming more engaged in dialogue and revealed that President Xi recently invited President Trump to China in a phone call. Bessent is scheduled to meet with Trump in the Oval Office tomorrow to discuss the latest developments. Will Trump give China the free pass for an extention, or will he tighten the screws a bit after his recent victories. The ball is back in the Presidents court.
Earlier today, Commerce Secretary Lutnick could hardly control his joy when speaking about the EU/US trade deal (although perhaps he should be more humble - what goes around/comes around). Lutnick praised the recently completed EU trade agreement as a “masterclass” by President Trump, highlighting it as a pivotal achievement that grants the U.S. access to the $20 trillion European market. He noted that the EU committed to $750 million in U.S. energy purchases and agreed to a 15% tariff structure, describing this as a major win. The EU, which runs a $235 billion annual trade surplus with the U.S., now faces a choice: onshore production to the U.S. or face tariffs under the terms of the deal. Lutnick emphasized that autos and pharmaceuticals were key components of the agreement—stating that if companies want to sell in the U.S., they must produce in the U.S. He revealed that President Trump plans to roll out a new pharmaceutical policy reinforcing that requirement.
In other news, both the monthly home prices from the FHFA, and the Case Shiller data show declines for the month is a bit of market softness enters from the overpriced why.
Consumer confidence rose to 97.2 from 95.0, and the JOLTS job openings came in marginally lower than the expected numbers. The US jobs report will be released on Friday.
Stocks took a breather today after record highs in the S&P and NASDAQ index yesterday and intraday new record highs today.
Dow industrial average which still hasn't reached a record highs since December 2024, fell -0.46%S&P index fell -0.30%NASDAQ index fell -0.38%Russell 2000 fell -0.61%.2-year yield 3.870%, -5.1 basis points5-year yield 3.903%, -7.9 basis points10 year yield 4.322%, - point basis points30 year yield 4.859%, -10.5 basis points
In addition to the GDP data to be released at 8:30 AM ET, the other big event is the FOMC rate decision at 2 PM,. The Fed is directed to keep rates unchanged. Fed chair Powell is still concerned about inflation and the potential impact from tariffs on prices. I would expect that he would keep that same bias. However, there could be some dissenting members. The split Fed might therefore be the storyline
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