The move has unnerved allies, particularly amid fears that Russia may target a NATO member if the Ukraine war subsides. However, recent talks have eased tensions, with US officials assuring no sudden disruptions.
While past US administrations considered scaling back in Europe to focus on China, Trump has pushed harder for the continent to bolster its own defence. Analysts see withdrawals as inevitable but debate the pace.
The Pentagon reports nearly 85,000 US troops in Europe, fluctuating since Russia’s 2022 invasion. Officials anticipate gradual reductions rather than abrupt cuts, though key capabilities like air defences remain irreplaceable for now.
“The kinds of defence investments by Europe may only be felt in real capability terms over many years,“ said Ian Lesser from the German Marshall Fund. “So the question of timing really does matter.”
European diplomats remain cautiously optimistic but acknowledge unpredictability. Trade disputes or shifting priorities could still strain transatlantic ties.
“It seems positive for now,“ said one diplomat. “But what if we are all wrong and a force decrease starts in 2026? To be honest, there isn’t much to go on at this stage.” - AFP
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