The new US-EU trade deal, announced at the Turnberry golf course in Scotland with Trumpian fanfare and EU caution, lifts the spectre of punishing new tariffs on European exports, particularly in sensitive sectors like cars and luxury goods.
The agreement appears to freeze hostilities more than it forges genuine progress. While it removes Trump’s threat of tariffs as high as 50 per cent on nearly all EU goods, it preserves most of the Trump-era tariffs and introduces new sectoral levies in return for modest EU market openings.
Trump claims the EU will purchase $750bn in US energy, as well as raising overall investment in the US by $600bn, although it is unclear how governments will guarantee businesses will make those decisions.
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Trump’s claim that the EU was scamming the US on trade was seen as preposterous in Brussels, and his linking of tariffs to the trade deficits was derided as economic mumbo jumbo. The EU could have fought back: it has an equivalent GDP and trade footprint, as well as the tools to impose counter tariffs. But the EU did not have the stomach for such a clash, and effectively sued for peace.
EU officials say this is the bloc’s biggest ever trade deal, even if it raises tariffs. But the alternative – a trade war with a protectionist White House – was judged more damaging.
In the end, this is a deal more about tone than trade. Europe avoided escalation. Trump got a photo op and a headline. The tariffs may rise – but at least, for now, the temperature has not.
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