Feds Kugler: Appropriate to keep policy rate of interest steady for some time ...Middle East

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Appropriate to keep policy rate of interest steady for some time given low unemployment, and building price pressure from tariffs.Inflation remains above the 2% target.Labor market is stable and resilient.A restricted policy stance is important right now to keep inflation expectations anchored.Estimate of June PCE inflation is 2.5% versus 2% target. Core estimate at 2.8%. Both higher than in May.CPI shows inflation broadly across four goods.Many reasons to think quarter impact of tariffs on inflation is still to come.

In the category of sympathetic to Pres. Trump and his rate cutting hopes, Kugler is not in that camp now.

Late yesterday Fed Williams spoke. Below are the summary of his comments:

Williams emphasized the Fed still needs to see more data before making decisions on policy changes.

Noted that inflation has moderated unevenly, especially due to housing-related factors.

So far, tariff impacts have been modest, but they are expected to increase over time.

On the Economy and Policy Stance

This stance gives the Fed time to monitor the evolving data. (not in a hurry)

Financial conditions remain supportive of growth.

Inflation (June): 2.5% headline, 2.75% core.

Unemployment expected to rise to 4.5% by year-end.

Labor market is slowing but still in good shape.

Bostic said he would wait before cutting rates, emphasizing the need for more clarity on inflation trends.

He emphasized that policy decisions must be data-driven, not based on headlines.

Businesses report that the current tariff environment is not a textbook case, leading to unusual pricing strategies.

The Fed will need to monitor how tariffs affect both prices and consumer behavior over time.

Reinforced that the Fed operates by committee with diverse viewpoints.

The central bank must preserve its credibility by sticking to its inflation target.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

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