From one worry to another for the BOE ...Middle East

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The first thing that stands out is that food price inflation is seen rising for a third straight month and is outpacing the CPIH reading again. Food price inflation was at 4.5% in June, its highest since February last year, while CPIH only recorded a 4.1% reading last month.

So, the recent trend we're seeing with food price inflation isn't going to be all too encouraging. Food prices in the European region in general are also rising but the one we're seeing in the UK looks to be standing out. So, this is certainly one spot the BOE has to keep an eye out for now besides their usual focus on services inflation.

In any case, this still remains a sticky spot but relative to the trend we're seeing with food price inflation, it is at least something the BOE can still argue that is gradually "getting better".

In the bigger picture, softer labour market data will likely help to keep the BOE on track with rate cuts. However, it's going to be a very slow drive towards neutral rather than a straightforward series of rate cuts for the central bank. That especially with stagflation risks continuing to haunt policymakers for the time being.

As things stand, another rate cut in August looks probable. But we'll have to see how the labour market data tomorrow reaffirms those odds, which likely it will.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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