BofA FMS: Investors most overweight Euro since January 2005 ...Middle East

Investor sentiment most bullish since February 2025Record surge in risk appetite past 3 monthsCash levels fall to 3.9%, 'triggering sell signal'Sentiment getting 'toppy', 'greed always much harder to reverse than fear'Trade war remains biggest 'tail risk' for investors26% say Bessent most likely to be the next Fed Chair, 17% Warsh, 14% Waller, 7% Hassett

The risk appetite has also been pretty clear by just looking at the parabolic rise in equities and cryptocurrencies. There are certainly 'toppy' signals here and there but without a catalyst, markets can generally extend much further than one can remain solvent.

I don't see the trade war as the biggest risk. In my opinion, the biggest risk is inflation. The trade war could become a risk once higher tariffs get implemented without any delays, deadline, pause and so on. If they stay in the 10-20% range, the market could likely swallow that (even though the 10% is the baseline scenario).

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

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