On Tuesday, the main focus will be on inflation data from both Canada and the U.S. Additionally, the U.S. will release the Empire state manufacturing index.
Thursday brings Australia’s employment change and unemployment rate, while in the U.S., retail sales m/m and weekly unemployment claims will be released.
In Canada, the consensus for CPI m/m is 0.2%, compared to the previous 0.6%. Median CPI y/y is expected to remain unchanged at 3.0%, as is trimmed CPI y/y. Common CPI m/m is forecasted to edge up slightly to 2.6% from the prior 2.7%.
There are signs that inflationary pressures are easing as economic conditions cool, wage gains soften, and services inflation shows signs of moderation. Despite this, the BoC may hold off on a rate cut at the next meeting, partly due to the continued resilience of the labor market. However, if inflation data surprises to the downside, a July rate cut would be on the table.
In the U.S., the consensus for core CPI m/m is 0.3%, compared to the previous 0.1%. Headline CPI m/m is also expected at 0.3% vs. 0.1% prior, while CPI y/y is forecast to rise to 2.6% from 2.4%.
Markets will be watching closely to determine whether this is merely a temporary rise or the beginning of renewed stickiness in core price pressures.
While food prices remain elevated and oil costs briefly spiked late last month, the broader picture suggests easing inflationary pressures, particularly within the services sector. Private sector wages are projected to have cooled to 4.8% in the three months to May, reinforcing expectations that the BoE will deliver a 25 bps rate cut at its next meeting in August.
Australia’s June labour force report is expected to show a rebound in job creation following May’s surprise dip. Employment fell by 2.5K last month, which was largely viewed as a correction after April’s sharp 87.6K gain, but analysts anticipate a return to growth, with forecasts generally ranging between a 20K and 30K increase.
While monthly figures remain volatile, the labour market continues to show signs of stability. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.1% in June, aligning with analyst consensus. In May, the drop in employment was offset by a similar decline in the labour force, which pushed the participation rate slightly lower to 67.0%, Westpac said.
In the U.S., the consensus for core retail sales m/m is a 0.3% increase, compared to the previous -0.3%. Headline retail sales m/m are expected to rise by 0.2%, following a sharp -0.9% decline in the prior month.
Auto dealership sales, a key component of retail, have declined in four of the first five months of the year and May’s drop, in particular, significantly pulled overall sales lower. That said, there are early signs of a potential rebound in auto sales. Meanwhile, e-commerce continues to perform well, helping to offset weakness in other areas.
Looking ahead, June retail sales are expected to be largely unchanged, with a modest 0.3% gain anticipated in the control measure. Consumers are still spending, but the pace of growth appears to be slowing.
This article was written by Gina Constantin at www.forexlive.com.Hence then, the article about market outlook for the week of 14th 18th july was published today ( ) and is available on forex live ( Middle East ) The editorial team at PressBee has edited and verified it, and it may have been modified, fully republished, or quoted. You can read and follow the updates of this news or article from its original source.
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