The cacophony makes it almost impossible to work out what actually matters: of the dozen or so noisy issues on any given day, which will still matter in a week or a month’s time? In the last few days alone, Trump has threatened to strip comedian Rosie O’Donnell of her citizenship, has ordered the arrest (or worse) of protestors opposing mass deportations, and embroiled himself in a row with his own supporters over Jeffrey Epstein.
The EU is the largest trading bloc in the world, while Mexico, as the USA’s southern neighbour, is its single largest trading partner. Tariffs of 30 per cent would devastate global trade, hurt the US economy more than anyone else’s, and lead to a wave of job losses and business failures across the world that could threaten the global economy. Worse, for the USA at least, it would do all of that while raising prices (and so inflation) for American consumers.
But this isn’t the first time: Trump has announced and then delayed or altered tariffs so many times in recent months that everyone is almost fatigued. The latest developments prompted weary press statements from the EU and Mexico, but little more.
That doesn’t make sense on a number of levels. The US is both a very large and a very rich country – most nations with which it trades are smaller and poorer. By Trump’s logic, if America buys coffee beans, bananas, or raw materials from a poor country, it should somehow be buying expensive manufacturing goods worth equal value from America – items it simply can’t afford.
That means there is no real “injustice” for Trump to fix with tariffs, and so the rest of the world can’t give him what he wants. When Trump was first persuaded by his officials to delay his mad scheme, the White House promised “90 deals in 90 days” instead. With those 90 days over, the US signed just two deals – one of them with the UK – and a partial deal with China, so he’s apparently reverting to the initial catastrophic plan.
Markets have even started referring to the new acronym “Taco” – Trump Always Chickens Out – to describe his approach on trade. People aren’t panicking as much this time because the last few times, disaster failed to materialise. Trump chickened out, after all.
As it stands, Trump will devastate global trade on 1 August – a time when many world leaders and senior traders alike are usually away from their desks and on holiday, leaving their juniors in charge. Perhaps Trump will chicken out again. He’s done it enough times before, after all. But if he doesn’t, it could be a turbulent summer indeed.
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