How have interest rates expectations changed after the first tariff letters?EU reportedly closes in on temporary "framework" agreement with the USEU will be firm, working closely with US to reach an agreement - von der LeyenEU commission says aims to reach a trade deal with US before August 1German Chancellor Merz: Cautiously optimistic on EU trade deal with the USChina calls out EU to readjust its attitude on trade relationsECB's de Guindos: Let's hope the exchange rate stabilizesECB's Lane: Data dependence also extends to incoming data outside the monetary domainBoE's Bailey: Steepening in yield curves for bonds is not particularly UK-focusedUS MBA mortgage applications w.e. 4 July +9.4% vs +2.7% prior
Markets:
USD leads, CAD lags on the dayEuropean equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.2%US 10-year yields down 0.4 bps to 4.413%Gold down 0.5% to $3,284.91WTI crude up 0.2% to $68.47Bitcoin up 0.4% to $109,127The whole point is to extend trade negotiations further, likely beyond 1 August, with the baseline tariffs fixed at 10%. Trump is reported to want added 17% tariffs on EU agrifood, so we'll have to see what the final details will be.
In FX, things were rather dead but the dollar is keeping steadier across the board. For the most part, we saw narrow ranges but the greenback is starting to pick up some light bids ahead of US trading.
Besides that, USD/CAD is up 0.3% to just above 1.3700 with AUD/USD down 0.2% to 0.6517 currently.
Elsewhere, gold is down and poised for a third weekly drop in four weeks with traders still digesting tariff developments for the most part. In the bigger picture though, price is very much ranging in and around the $3,300 mark since the end of May.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com. Read More Details
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