UBS: Emerging market stocks not fully pricing in tariff risks ...Middle East

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Over 35% of MSCI EM revenues come from exports, with 13% tied to the U.S., leaving them vulnerable as reciprocal tariffs take effect. UBS estimates the current average U.S. tariff rate of 16% could climb to 21%—up sharply from just 2.4% in 2024—if earlier tariff levels are fully reinstated.

UBS's stress tests suggest tariffs and related economic slowdown could cut EM earnings by 6–9%, yet earnings forecasts have only been trimmed by 3% in recent months. As more downgrades come through, UBS expects this will weigh on EM equity performance going forward.

Earlier:

J.P. Morgan revises EMFX overweight call, citing overbought signals This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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