The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to hold the Official Cash Rate at 3.25%, after a series of cuts totaling 225 basis points from its peak of 5.5%. A majority of NZIER Monetary Policy Shadow Board members also support holding rates steady, citing mixed inflation signals and global uncertainty. Most expect the monetary easing cycle is nearing its end, with the OCR likely remaining between 2.75% and 3.25% over the coming year. While several members see limited room for further cuts, two still favor more easing to support the domestic economy.
This range — between the 50% midpoint at 0.5982 and the 100-bar MA at 0.6033 — marks the key technical zone for traders. A break above 0.6033 would shift the bias more bullish, while a move below 0.5982 would invite further downside, targeting the 61.8% retracement at 0.5950, followed by the key swing area between 0.5882 and 0.5893. These levels will guide directional conviction ahead of the RBNZ's decision, and after it as well.
Right now, the bias is tilted a little to the downside below the MA levels. However, the price does remain closer to the highs going back to October 2024. So buyers and sellers both have to prove themselves. Getting below the 50% gives the sellers even more control. Getting above the 100 bar moving average on the 4 hour chart which showed that the buyers are back in firm control.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. Read More Details
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