EIA's STEO: Geopolitics Push Oil Up, But Glut Still Looms ...Middle East

Oil prices have inched up, but the EIA says don’t get used to it. The July Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) raised its 2025 Brent forecast by $3 to $69/bbl, citing a spike in geopolitical risk from the mid-June Iran nuclear conflict. But that bump is expected to be short-lived. With inventories building, the agency sees Brent falling to $58/bbl in 2026—a dollar lower than last month’s projection. Meanwhile, U.S. crude output is peaking. Production averaged just over 13.4 million bpd in Q2, an all-time high, but is expected to…

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