Oklahoma is entering a pivotal 2025 season under Brent Venables as the program looks to get back on track.
Venables made a huge decision this offseason when he hired former Washington State offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle and lured ex-Wazzu quarterback John Mateer in from the transfer portal. The duo of Arbuckle and Mateer will be looking to revive an Oklahoma offense that ranked 124th in yards per play last season.
The good news is the Sooners return a few key players on top of Arbuckle and Mateer, who come in with excellent track records of success.
2025 Oklahoma football predictions
A couple of notes before we dive in. One, these projections will not take potential injuries into account but existing injuries will factor in. Two, these predictions are just for the 12-game regular season and not for a potential multi-game postseason run should the Sooners exceed expectations this year.
Quarterback John Mateer
While you might expect Mateer to take a step back this season as he makes the transition to SEC play, history says he has a good chance to replicate his excellent 2024 campaign at Washington State — at least from a passing efficiency standpoint. While the competition is tougher, his teammates and coaches are better, too. He may take a small step back, but the familiarity he has with offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle should help him get close to the 3,139 passing yards he produced last season.
As a runner, I do have some doubts about Mateer’s volume at the SEC level. He carried the ball 178 times in 12 games last season. There’s a very small group of SEC quarterbacks who have had that kind of rushing volume over the last 25 years or so and I don’t think Mateer will be joining that list. With that in mind, I am going to project a step back for Mateer on the ground.
Projected passing stats: 62% completion, 2,895 yards, 27 touchdowns, 11 interceptions
Projected rushing stats: 145 attempts, 580 yards, 11 touchdowns
Running back Jaydn Ott
Oklahoma’s addition of Jaydn Ott was one of the biggest transfer moves of the spring cycle. In 2023 at Cal, Ott was simply elite. He rushed for 1,315 yards in what was a really strong Pac-12. He led the conference in both rushing yards and offensive touches that season. He took a step back in 2024 as he battled injuries, but he’s expected to be the lead back for the Sooners in 2025 now that he’s fully healthy.
I’m optimistic about Ott’s efficiency metrics returning to 2023 form, but I doubt he gets anywhere close to the 246 carries he earned that season. OU has a pretty deep running back room with players like Jovantae Barnes, Taylor Tatum and Xavier Robinson. Ott will be the lead back as long as he’s healthy, but the Sooners aren’t in a position where they have to be reckless with his usage. Ott’s receiving stats are hard to predict — he became a legitimate weapon in the passing game at Cal but Washington State rarely threw the ball to running backs in 2024 with Mateer and Arbuckle leading the offense.
Projected rushing stats: 200 attempts, 1,050 yards, 9 touchdowns
Projected receiving stats: 15 receptions, 128 yards, 2 touchdowns
Wide receiver Deion Burks
Like Ott, Deion Burks enjoyed a breakout 2023 campaign at another school before an injury-riddled 2024 campaign. Burks was at OU last season but never got the chance to follow-up on his sensational season at Purdue the year prior: 47 catches for 628 yards and 7 touchdowns. He was limited to just 5 games for the Sooners last year but ultimately chose to return to Oklahoma for another year in 2025.
If healthy, Burks will be OU’s best and most productive wide receiver this season. He’s one of the most talented slot receivers in the country. Per PFF, he recorded 1.79 yards per route run in 2024 out of the slot despite an average depth of target of just 6.8 yards. That’s a laughably-low ADOT that should increase significantly given OU’s upgrades at quarterback and offensive coordinator this offseason. If that happens, he could approach 1,000 yards — something an OU receiver hasn’t accomplished since Marvin Mims in 2022.
Projected receiving stats: 75 catches, 920 yards, 12 touchdowns
Wide receiver Zion Kearney
Ironically, picking Oklahoma’s No. 2 wide receiver might be more difficult than this exercise. I’m going with Kearney because of the injury-related doubts surrounding Jayden Gibson and Javonnie Gibson this offseason. Perhaps they’ll end up being healthy in 2025 and will enjoy breakout seasons, but for now I’m giving the nod to Kearney.
Kearney was great last season in very limited snaps as a true freshman. He caught 8 passes for 128 yards and a touchdown, with much of that production coming in the bowl game vs. Navy. Kearney is a former top-100 prospect who has earned strong reviews out of Norman this offseason. If both Gibsons are hobbled at all, he’s a great bet to earn WR2 targets this fall for Oklahoma.
Projected receiving stats: 38 catches, 510 yards, 7 touchdowns
Predicting final stats for Oklahoma’s key offensive players in 2025 Saturday Down South.
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