In this sport, we tend to judge coaches by how often they can produce 10-win seasons. Because if you can get there, you’re likely not toiling about under .500 too often. While Bob Stoops only led his Oklahoma program to 1 national championship in 18 seasons as the head coach, he managed 14 different 10-win campaigns across those 18 seasons. He should be regarded as one of the best coaches in college football history.
Nick Saban, arguably the greatest of all time, inexplicably produced 16 straight 10-win seasons at Alabama. That streak, which is an NCAA record, might become one of the unbreakable records in football as the game levels out. Without that streak, Alabama wouldn’t have the volume of national titles and Saban’s legacy might be different.
Ten-win teams are great teams.
And in the era of the 12-team College Football Playoff, 10-win teams are contending teams.
So, who can win 10 games in 2025? One of our go-to sports betting apps is taking bets on teams to reach 10 wins in the new season. Here’s who I’m backing.
(Note: All odds via bet365 unless otherwise listed.)
Alabama Crimson Tide (+100)
The Crimson Tide will likely be favored in all but 1 regular-season game in 2025. There’s a chance, depending on how the Georgia game goes for the Tide and how LSU begins its season, the Tigers are a slight favorite in Tuscaloosa on Nov. 8, but I wouldn’t bet on that. Alabama should have one of the very best defenses in the country. Its ceiling depends on how improved the quarterback play is. If the Kalen DeBoer/Ryan Grubb offense looks anything close to how it did at Washington, Alabama is probably a lock to hit double-digit wins in the regular season.
Bill Connelly’s SP+ model — which projects the Crimson Tide to be the second-best team in America — gives Alabama a 65% chance to hit 10 wins in 2025. Of course, the Crimson Tide play an SEC schedule, but they don’t play a top-10 SEC schedule, at least according to SP+.
The Tide play 5 road games in 2025: at Florida State on Aug. 30, at Georgia on Sept. 27, at Mizzou on Oct. 11, at South Carolina on Oct. 25, and at Auburn on Nov. 29. Florida State shouldn’t scare anyone in Tuscaloosa. Mizzou, South Carolina, and Auburn could all be tricky, but they shouldn’t be outright challenging like the Georgia game. By most estimations, Alabama is a national title contender. No one is putting Mizzou, USC, or Auburn in that category.
The Crimson Tide still have a roster overflowing with blue-chip talent. They have one of the best playmakers in the sport in wideout Ryan Williams. They have a promising edge rusher in LT Overton who is still trying to put all the pieces together. What they lacked last season was, first, a certain polish that might be attributed to the culture change, and second, a reliable passing attack. The Tide ranked 32nd in EPA per dropback with Jalen Milroe at the controls, per Game on Paper. DeBoer’s last Washington team ranked ninth. If Ty Simpson looks the part, Alabama should be in the Playoff, which is another way of saying the Tide should clear 10 wins. Getting plus value here is a gift.
Tennessee Volunteers (+240)
The Vols’ 2025 nonconference schedule features Syracuse, East Tennessee State, UAB, and New Mexico State. The Vols will play Georgia, Alabama, and Florida, but they will also face 5 of the 6 SEC teams that finished league play with more losses than victories last season. Would it be fair to say that Tennessee has a light schedule, relatively speaking, in 2025?
Connelly’s SP+ has the Vols sitting 13th in the post-spring projections. The model suggests Tennessee will play the 24th-toughest schedule. Only 1 SEC team (Mizzou) has a lighter schedule.
And that comes at a good time for the Vols, who were arguably one of the biggest losers of the offseason. Record-breaking running back Dylan Sampson went to the NFL. Powerful edge James Pearce Jr. went to the NFL. And then starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava bailed.
The quarterback saga in Knoxville this past spring was a sign of the times in college football, but I’m not convinced it was a harbinger of things to come for Tennessee. Given what he had shown as a starting quarterback at the FBS level, Iamaleava’s name outpaced his game. There were flies in the ointment last season — accuracy, decision-making, reading defenses — and Tennessee still went to the College Football Playoff.
Swapping Iamaleava with former Appalachian State gunslinger Joey Aguilar might not necessarily fix those issues at the quarterback spot, but enough is still here for Tennessee to just keep doing what it did. The Vols made the CFP last season on the strength of their ground game and their defense. There’s enough continuity within the defensive unit to think another stout group is possible, and the backfield has solid options to make up for Sampson in the aggregate. Josh Heupel needs Aguilar to not be a turnover machine — he threw 14 picks last season — but maybe Aguilar needs exactly the environment Tennessee provides to realize his best self.
Connelly’s SP+ gives UT a 33% chance to hit 10 wins. At the +240 price currently being offered at bet365, I think there’s some value here.
Penn State Nittany Lions (-275)
If Penn State doesn’t win 10 regular-season games, something has gone horribly wrong here. Like, a crucial player suffered a catastrophic injury or a key coach got fired weeks before the season for some reason. In the absence of either of those things, Penn State is going to roll right along.
The Nittany Lions play nonconference games against Nevada, FIU, and Villanova. The only difference between 2025 Penn State and 2024 Indiana is that people seem to kind of enjoy Curt Cignetti’s loutish demeanor. (If Penn State goes 11-1 and gets smacked by Ohio State, we should absolutely treat it just like we treated Indiana.)
Road conference games in 2025 are at UCLA, Iowa, Michigan State, Rutgers, and Ohio State. Penn State only has 4 home games in league play, but those are against Northwestern, Indiana, Nebraska, and Oregon. The Oregon game could catch Penn State off guard if bad habits are formed after 3 straight cupcakes, but I think the Nittany Lions have an edge in what will be a White Out game.
Only 2 games on the 2025 schedule give Penn State fans any reason to worry: the Oregon game and the Ohio State game. During the last 3 regular seasons, Penn State is 31-0 against opponents not named Michigan or Ohio State. The talent gap between the Penn State/Ohio State/Oregon/kinda-sorta-Michigan tier and everyone else is laughable.
Almost everyone came back from last season’s 13-win semifinalist team to chase a ring. Penn State upgraded its receiver room to offset the loss of Tyler Warren, and it probably has the best coordinator duo of any team in the league (and perhaps the country). There’s a veteran quarterback, a dominant ground game, and stars along the defense.
The implied probability at this price is 73%. Connelly’s SP+ gives Penn State an 82% chance to hit 10 wins. And I think even that estimate is conservative.
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Michigan Wolverines (+140)
Connelly’s SP+ loves the Wolverines. Michigan was a post-spring No. 10 in the model’s projections. The offense will be a work in progress under first-year quarterback Bryce Underwood, but the defense should be outstanding.
The Wolverines aced the offseason in many respects. They added some insurance behind Underwood in the quarterback room. They added former Alabama runner Justice Haynes to form a terrific 1-2 at the tailback spot. They added to the receiver room. But, perhaps most importantly, they firmed up their offensive foundation with the hire of offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey. He’s a proven play-caller with a track record of developing quarterbacks.
Michigan managed 8 wins last year despite a quarterback spot that was a net negative. The Wolverines were better than most, but the infatuation with shooting off toes every Saturday closed the gap with teams. If the Lindsey-Underwood partnership produces immediate results, Michigan’s talent puts it right back in the upper echelon of the Big Ten.
But the real draw with Michigan is the defense. SP+ projects Michigan to have the third-best defense in the country. The Wolverines lost a pair of first-round picks at defensive tackle, but did well to soften that blow with portal additions from Tre Williams (Clemson) and Damon Payne Jr. (Alabama). They held onto Ernest Hausmann (a massive win) and grabbed TJ Metcalf from Arkansas, a player who could be a real difference-maker at nickel in the Big Ten. Local reports out of Ann Arbor suggest edge guys Derrick Moore and TJ Guy are beloved by the staff, which underscores a key point that should be made for Michigan.
Because of the level of recent recruiting, Michigan belongs in the elite tier of programs where you just don’t get too worked up about NFL Draft departures. The cupboard is consistently full. What can the offense do to raise the ceiling? That’s the question here.
Michigan doesn’t play Oregon or Penn State in the regular season. It gets The Game at home. USC is on the road. It plays Oklahoma in Norman in Week 2. Give Ohio State a win on Nov. 29 and split the OU/Nebraska road trip. Is there a better-than-41% chance Michigan wins 9 games against the rest of the schedule? My answer is yes. A first-year quarterback carries a ton of variance, but Michigan literally can’t get worse play than what it had last year.
Kansas State Wildcats (+200)
Chris Klieman’s Wildcats are the highest-ranked team in the post-spring SP+ projections. They’re projected to be a field goal better than last year’s Big 12 champs, Arizona State, on a neutral field. Early Big 12 odds have a glut of teams, K-State among them, listed as co-favorites to win the league in 2025 and that sums up the conference perfectly in the new year. Right now, there doesn’t appear to be a runaway “best” team in the conference. Every contender has some degree of uncertainty. ASU has to play Baylor, Utah, and Iowa State all on the road. Texas Tech is supposed to be a power based on…? The money it spent this offseason? Utah is relying on a 5-10 quarterback from New Mexico to fix its offense.
Kansas State, which went 9-4 last season, is one of the safer picks. Three November losses knocked the Wildcats out of the Big 12 title race last season, but between returning talent and an aggressive portal approach, the Wildcats are pretty well-stocked to make another run.
Quarterback Avery Johnson enters his second year as the starter. He’ll have a different offensive coordinator (again) but Klieman opted for familiarity when replacing Conor Riley, naming last year’s co-offensive coordinator and QB coach as Riley’s replacement. A step from Johnson is reasonable. The Wildcats beefed up the offensive line and brought in 3 transfer receivers to help their quarterback.
As a first-time starter last year, Johnson completed 58% of his throws for 2,712 yards and 25 touchdowns. He also ran for 605 yards and 7 scores. I love Dylan Edwards, who stands as the biggest beneficiary of DJ Giddens’ departure in the backfield, and I think a Johnson-Edwards backfield provides Kansas State with a delightful dose of versatility. Edwards can make plays with his legs or his hands. Johnson can obviously hurt defenses with his legs.
Kansas State opens the season with Farmageddon in Dublin. They have to play Baylor, Oklahoma State, and Utah away from home as well. K-State hosts Texas Tech on Nov. 1 and has a potentially tricky game against Army at home in the nonconference, but there’s a lot to like here.
Of the 4 losses last season, 3 came by 10 points or less. The only time K-State got blown out was at BYU in a Week 4 game that saw the Wildcats outgain the Cougars 367-241. Three Wildcat turnovers, 1 scoop-and-score touchdown for BYU, and a 90-yard punt return score produced the wacky result. What’s more, that 38-9 defeat was the only loss by more than 10 points in the last 3 seasons for K-State. They just don’t let teams separate. If Johnson takes another step in his development in Year 2, that could flip some of those close defeats the other way.
Best bets to crack 10 wins during the 2025 college football season Saturday Down South.
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