Arsenal are reportedly pushing to sign Noni Madueke from Chelsea for £50m, but with Bukayo Saka as the undisputed first choice on the right, does this big-money move make sense?
As a very general rule, elite footballers will back themselves to win a place in the starting lineup at a new club.
Even if the odds look stacked against them, there is a level of confidence needed as a professional sportsperson that means the best ones believe they will make a success of any move.
But even the most self-confident player would surely recognise that Bukayo Saka’s place in the Arsenal team is not up for grabs. He is one of the best players in the world and Arsenal are much, much worse off when he doesn’t play.
So, if reports over the weekend that Chelsea winger Noni Madueke has agreed personal terms with Arsenal are to be believed, it’s natural to wonder what role he expects to have at the Emirates.
Madueke played 84% of his Premier League minutes for Chelsea last season on the right side – Saka’s position at Arsenal. At a reported £50 million, he would therefore provide a very, very expensive and very, very capable backup to Saka on the right-hand side, but while that would unquestionably be incredibly useful, it surely can’t be the only reason that Arsenal would sign him.
A few years ago, Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta challenged Saka to play every single game – and play well doing it, too.
“Look at the top players in the world,” Arteta said in October 2022 when asked about concerns Saka was playing too much. “They play 70 matches, [playing] every three days and make the difference and win the game. You want to be at the top, you have to be able to do that.”
Any worries about Arsenal’s reliance on their star player haven’t gone away in the time since, and they were only exacerbated last season when Saka limped off against Crystal Palace in December and then missed three months of action with a hamstring injury. Without an adequate replacement, he was run into the ground, and Arsenal suffered terribly in his absence after he got injured because he had played too much football.
Clearly, they need someone good enough to allow Saka a break on the right, but his injury was also a rare occurrence; according to Transfermarkt, it was the first time at any point in his career that he has missed more than five consecutive games due to injury. In the three seasons before 2024-25, he played at least 82% of possible minutes and was in the squad at least 92% of the time.
So, from Madueke’s point of view, leaving Chelsea – where he started 27 of a possible 38 Premier League games last season – to play second fiddle to Saka doesn’t make much sense.
He is more likely to get game time on the left, where Arsenal may be looking for an upgrade, or at the very least competition, for Gabriel Martinelli, who didn’t have his best season in an Arsenal shirt last term.
In his two years at Chelsea, Madueke has played only 398 minutes on the left in domestic or European competition. His two managers in that time, Mauricio Pochettino and Enzo Maresca, did not see fit to play him there despite the fact that none of the players who started on the left more than him in those two seasons – Mykhailo Mudryk (18 Premier League starts on the left), Jadon Sancho (16), Raheem Sterling (12), Pedro Neto (9), Christopher Nkunku (5) – did particularly well.
He seemingly convinced Maresca to give him a shot on the left towards the end of 2024-25, though, with 334 of his minutes on the left wing in domestic or European competition for Chelsea coming in the last month of the campaign. Those include some tough assignments, such as 72 minutes against Liverpool, 81 minutes against Manchester United, and 45 minutes against Newcastle. His two starts at the Club World Cup have also come on the left flank.
It’s still a very small sample size, though, and any of his numbers from his time on the left need to be viewed with that context. He might not be able to translate what he did on the left flank in just over four games’ worth of playing time for Chelsea to more significant minutes for Arsenal.
But his stats nevertheless still give some reason to believe he could be a good option on that side for Arsenal while also being Saka’s backup on the right.
He is among the Premier League’s most two-footed players when it comes to taking shots. Among players to attempt at least 30 non-headed shots last season, only a handful were closer to a 50-50 split between right and left foot than him, and almost all of those ahead of him were more right-footed than left-footed. That is, predominantly right-footed players tend to be more two-footed than predominantly left-footed players; among those who had more shots with their left foot than their right, only Antoine Semenyo (53.8% left-footed shots; 46.2% right-footed) was closer to a perfect split than Madueke (65.8% left-footed; 34.2% right-footed).
So, while his preference is to play on the right and cut inside on to his stronger left foot, he can also go on the outside, too. That applies to him playing on either flank.
He is a consistent goal threat, with only four players (min. 1,500 minutes played) averaging more shots per 90 in the Premier League last season than him (3.5), while he was third among non-strikers for non-penalty expected goals per 90 (0.42), behind Luis Díaz and Brennan Johnson. Meanwhile, of players to start at least 25 games, only Mohamed Salah (10.5) averaged more touches in the opposition’s box than him (8.8).
Interestingly – though with that caveat of this being a small sample size in mind – Madueke didn’t see a huge drop-off in his goal threat when playing on the left.
His shots dropped from 3.7 per 90 on the right to 2.4 on the left, but his xG actually stayed constant at 0.42. He also still managed 7.8 touches in the opposition box per 90 on the left wing, despite it being his natural inclination as a left-footer to go around the outside.
Madueke ranked joint first for progressive carries (moving with the ball at least five metres towards the opposition’s goal), with 6.1 per 90, level with Brighton centre-back Jan Paul van Hecke, who naturally has more space to move into whenever he gets on the ball.
Madueke also topped the Premier League last season for carries ending in a shot, with 1.6 per 90, but having managed 1.7 per 90 on the right, he averaged just 0.9 per 90 on the left. One of his main strengths, then, of running with the ball, cutting in and shooting, is significantly weakened when on the left side, even if he is more comfortable shooting with his weaker foot than most.
But while Madueke excels with the ball at his feet, he is also skilled at making off-the-ball runs to try and get in behind, which puts him more in the mould of someone like Martinelli than Saka.
Only five players (min. 1,500 minutes played) made more off-the-ball runs ending in the penalty area in the Premier League last season than Madueke (7.7 per 90), and only one of them wasn’t a centre-forward (Díaz – 8.6).
A sign of exactly how much impact his runs have is the fact that of the 544 off-the-ball runs Madueke made while a teammate was in possession, 78 (14.3%) led to a Chelsea player having a shot. That percentage was only higher for two other players (min. 200 runs) in the whole league, and both of them played for runaway title-winners Liverpool (Salah, 15.8% and Alexis Mac Allister, 14.5%).
Playing on the left in the 1-0 win over Man Utd in May, Madueke made two threatening runs off the left flank that were found by Cole Palmer, only to fluff his lines from decent positions. On both occasions, though, his movement played a big part in the chance coming about.
In this day’s money, £50m is about the going rate for a player of Madueke’s standing; a very good Premier League winger who has proven himself at that level, and at 23 years old is heading into the prime years of his career, with plenty of time on his side to improve.
As long as he can adjust to playing more regularly on the left, while also being able to switch back to the right whenever Saka needs a break, he could be a very worthwhile signing indeed.
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Why Would Arsenal Sign Noni Madueke? Opta Analyst.
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