USD gaining ground on Trump's extra 10% tariff threatTrump says US tariff letters, and/or deals, will be delivered starting 12:00 pm July 7Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed the new tariffs will take effect on August 1US' Bessent warns of tariff hike if no trade deals reached by August 1Trump says could send out 12 or 15 letter on tariffs on Monday
Oil / Middle East
Goldman held its Brent crude oil forecast at $59 for Q4 2025 and $56 for 2026Oil prices fell just over 1% at the Globex open on Sunday evening US timeIsrael confirms it has attacked multiple terrorist targets in YemenIsraeli military says it will strike Yemeni ports, issues evacuation warningShip attacked in Red Sea; crew abandons vessel amid fire and floodingOPEC+ will increase oil output production more than expected: +548,000 (+411,000 expected)Reserve Bank of New Zealand Shadow Board advises RBNZ to hold rates steady this weekGoldman Sachs says US jobs data reinforces Fed patience - labor market shows resilienceWall Street Journal says "Elon Musk Is Running Out of Road in China"Australian job ads hit one-year high, signalling labour market resilienceChina restricts government purchases of medical devices from European Union - retaliationPBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1506 (vs. estimate at 7.1626)ICYMI - OPEC+ hiked output more than expected. What will they do next?China 14 point plan to promote expansion of service industry, promote rural revitalizationReserve Bank of Australia expected to cut its cash rate on Tuesday - why they might notJapan May real wages fell the most in 2 yearsPM Carney says new oil pipeline proposal in Canada is highly likelyJapan's top trade negotiator Akazawa, held two intense phone talks with LutnickECB's Makhlouf said that the euro is not yet ready to replace the US dollarFinancial Times: China reroutes exports via south-east Asia in bid to dodge Trump tariffsEconomic calendar in Asia Monday, July 7, 2025 - Japan wages dataTrade ideas thread - Monday, 7 July, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideasMonday open levels, indicative FX prices, 07 July 2025Newsquawk Week Ahead: Week Ahead: Trade deadlines, FOMC Minutes, RBA, RBNZ, Canada jobs
It was an eventful weekend and a busy session for markets, with several key developments driving sharp moves across assets.
The most dramatic came from former U.S. President Trump, who posted late Sunday U.S. time on Truth Social:
“Any Country aligning themselves with the Anti-American policies of BRICS will be charged an ADDITIONAL 10% Tariff. There will be no exceptions to this policy.”-
Tensions in the Middle East added to oil market unease. On Sunday, a cargo ship was attacked and set on fire in the Red Sea, prompting the crew to abandon it. The strike, which took place southwest of Yemen, bore the hallmarks of a Houthi operation, according to a security firm. In response, Israel launched airstrikes on Houthi positions in three Yemeni ports and a power station following an evacuation warning issued by the IDF.
In economic data, Japan reported that real wages fell in May by the most in nearly two years. While headline pay agreements reached in spring were the strongest in decades, many smaller firms without unions have yet to implement wage hikes, delaying their appearance in broader data. The wage drop adds pressure on already fragile consumption, despite recent signs of a spending rebound.
Yen weakness too:
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com. Read More Details
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