In markets, when the 2-year Treasury yield falls below the Fed's overnight rate, it's generally a signal that the market is expecting the central bank to cut rates soon (or the Fed reached the end of the tightening cycle depending on the context). The market can be wrong though and it indeed got it wrong in 2023 when the yield dropped to 3.55% in March and then rose back to a new cycle high in October at 5.25%.
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