We preview this quarter-final match at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup with our Real Madrid vs Dortmund prediction. Can Xabi Alonso continue his winning run with his new club?
Real Madrid vs Dortmund Stats: The Key Insights
Real Madrid are the Opta supercomputer‘s favourites to progress from this tie (59.7%). This will be the fifth knockout tie between Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund, with the Spanish side winning three of the previous four, including the 2024 Champions League Final. Dortmund have now won nine of their last 10 matches in all competitions (D1).Forget Kylian Mbappé. Move over Vinícius Júnior. And thanks, but no thanks, Jude Bellingham. Real Madrid have a new hero in town.
Gonzalo García’s breakout tournament continued as his header sealed a 1-0 win over Juventus in the last 16 of the FIFA Club World Cup in Miami.
It was García’s third goal of the tournament, with the Spaniard having already netted against Al-Hilal and Red Bull Salzburg in the group stage. The 21-year-old, who scored 25 goals for Real Madrid Castilla in 2024-25, also provided an assist in Madrid’s other group game against Pachuca. That means he’s been directly involved in at least one goal in all of Madrid’s matches at this year’s Club World Cup – he is the only player in the competition that’s achieved that in 2025.
His latest contribution came via a trademark cross from new signing Trent Alexander-Arnold, which was the former Liverpool man’s first assist for his new club.
Madrid were worthy of their win, attempting 21 shots to Juventus’ six and landing 11 shots on target. That was nearly as many as they managed during the entire group stage (14).
Victory sets up a quarter-final clash with Borussia Dortmund, who edged out Monterrey 2-1 their last-16 game. Dortmund looked in control after goals from Serhou Guirassy in the 14th and 24th minutes, but Germán Berterame struck back for Monterrey early in the second half, and the Mexican side pressed strongly for an equaliser.
Dortmund held firm, with manager Niko Kovač praising his team’s resilience. “The first half was our best in this tournament,” he said. “After the break, we fought the win home.”
There’s no doubt Kovač has sparked a revival. Dortmund have now won nine of their last 10 matches in all competitions (D1) and 15 of 24 since his appointment (D4 L5). Before his arrival, Dortmund had won just 10 of their previous 24 matches (D4 L10).
Real Madrid, though, have had the better of recent meetings between the two sides. They’ve won four straight matches against Dortmund, all in the UEFA Champions League, including a 5-2 victory in the group stage last October.
This will be the fifth knockout tie between Madrid and Dortmund, with the Spanish side winning three of the previous four, including the 2024 Champions League final. Dortmund’s only victory in that run came in the 2013 semi, where they won 4-3 on aggregate, after Robert Lewandowski’s famous four-goal haul in the first leg.
This match will see Jude Bellingham face his former club once more. He’s enjoyed these reunions so far, providing an assist in both of his previous games against Dortmund. Each time he set up Vinícius , including in last season’s Champions League final.
There will be no Bellingham family reunion this time, though. Jobe will miss the match after picking up a yellow card in the win over Monterrey.
Real Madrid vs Dortmund Prediction
Real Madrid are favourites to knock out Dortmund and advance to the semi-finals of the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup, according to the Opta supercomputer.
Los Blancos progressed to the next round in 59.7% of the supercomputer’s simulations. They made it to the final four inside 90 minutes 47.4% of the time, while Dortmund won in normal time in 27.4% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Including the possibility of extra-time and a penalty shootout, the Bundesliga side advanced to the semis 40.3% of the time.
Real Madrid vs Dortmund Squads
Real MadridThibaut Courtois, Andriy Lunin, Fran González, Sergio Mestre, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Dani Carvajal, Éder Militão, David Alaba, Lucas Vázquez, Fran García, Antonio Rüdiger, Ferland Mendy, Dean Huijsen, Youssef Enríquez, Jacobo Ramón, Diego Aguado, Raúl Asencio, Jesús Fortea, Jude Bellingham, Aurélien Tchouaméni, Eduardo Camavinga, Federico Valverde, Luka Modric, Arda Güler, Dani Ceballos, Chema Andres, Víctor Muñoz, Mario Martin, Vinícius Júnior, Kylian Mbappé, Rodrygo, Endrick, Gonzalo García, Brahim Díaz.
Head Coach: Xabi Alonso
Borussia DortmundGregor Kobel, Yan Couto, Waldemar Anton, Ramy Bensebaini, Giovanni Reyna, Felix Nmecha, Serhou Guirassy, Julian Brandt, Pascal Groß, Maximilian Beier, Julien Duranville, Carney Chukwuemeka, Marcel Sabitzer, Daniel Svensson, Niklas Süle, Julian Ryerson, Karim Adeyemi, Silas Ostrzinski, Alexander Meyer, Cole Campbell, Kjell Wätjen, Filippo Mané, Samuele Inacio, Mathis Albert, Almugera Kabar, Jamie Gittens, Soumaïla Coulibaly, Ayman Azhil, Elias Benkara, Jobe Bellingham
Head Coach: Niko Kovač
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off, here are the Opta Power Rankings for both sides.
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Real Madrid vs Dortmund Prediction: 2025 FIFA Club World Cup Quarter-Final Preview Opta Analyst.
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