Five takeaways as Senate ships Trump’s megabill to House ...Middle East

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Senate Republicans endured a 26-hour slog before finally passing President Trump’s ambitious tax and spending package early Tuesday afternoon, putting it one giant step closer to reaching the Resolute Desk. 

It now heads to the House, where questions surround whether the lower chamber can meet the GOP’s self-imposed July 4 deadline for passing the bill. 

The legislation would make many of the Trump tax cuts from eight years ago permanent, put in place the president’s proposals to eliminate some taxes on tips and overtime, and make the largest-ever cuts to Medicaid.

With the Senate’s work done – at least for now – here are five takeaways from their bill as it heads across the Capitol. 

Thune notches first major legislative win

It took a vat of elbow grease, but Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) notched his first major legislative victory since taking over atop the GOP conference, buoying his standing with his members and Trump with more fights coming down the rails. 

Last-minute negotiations with Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) sealed the deal, but the momentous vote was months in the making, multiple lawmakers said. 

Senators told The Hill that much of Thune’s success in getting the bill passed stems from changes he undertook from the outset of his tenure, such as decentralizing power in the conference by empowering committee chairs and numerous members. 

Having previously cleared almost all of Trump’s Cabinet picks through the Senate despite some Republican skepticism, Thune again showed deft handling of members throughout the rough-and-tumble process on the “big, beautiful bill.”

“He’s got patience that very few people are gifted with,” Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) told The Hill amid the marathon vote-a-rama. “You can’t make anybody do anything. But what you can do is help them to get to a decision, and that’s what he’s doing.”

“This has been baptism under fire,” Rounds added. 

Thune’s persuasive skills were on clearest display as he swayed final votes on Tuesday. 

Thune spoke consistently with Murkowski throughout the process, capped with a series of discussions on and near the floor on Monday night and Tuesday morning that helped get her to “yes.” He also helped bring conservatives on board after myriad conversions, individual discussions and conference meetings.

“He’s gotten … marquee legislation for the president passed under his leadership. He’s gotten nominees at a record rate. He has empowered committee chairs,” said Sen. Katie Britt (R-Ala.). “This will be huge, and people know that he can get it done.”

Murmurs of criticism of his approach were centered on his decision to start the vote-a-rama later  Monday morning rather than pushing ahead earlier to ramp up pressure. In the end, Thune’s timeline worked well enough. 

“That was absolutely the right approach, right strategy,” said Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.). “You just had to put the bill on the floor and start to find out where people really were in terms of how they were going to vote on it and start to uncover any other issue that may not have been seen before.”

Murkowski notches key concessions — again

It’s almost a time-honored tradition at this point: Senate GOP leadership looks to nab the support of Murkowski for a high-stakes bill and she secures significant concessions for her home state to jump on board. 

That’s what happened again leading up to Tuesday morning.

Much of the attention centered on a pair of items: a carveout from changes to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) that will save her home state hundreds of millions of dollars, and a provision that would have increased federal Medicaid payments in the Last Frontier. The latter piece did not make it in the final bill. 

The final scramble did see her nab $50 billion for a rural hospital fund, up from $25 billion that was originally included. 

Some other Alaska-specific items were added to the bill in the final weeks: a new tax exemption to fishers from western Alaska villages and a separate provision that gives some whaling captains in the state to deduct $50,000 of their expenses, a five-fold increase.

“She was very determined to make sure her state was taken care of,” said Senate Budget Committee Chairman Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), labeling her as “tough” but “reasonable.” 

“I like talking to people who know what the hell they’re talking about. She does,” he continued. “She knew that we were really trying to help her and her state.”

That doesn’t mean everyone was ecstatic with the Alaska-specific inclusions.

“The bill got more expensive to get her vote. There had to be a purchasing of her vote, so there was billions and billions of dollars given to her,” said Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) when asked about the concessions needed to win her support. “I think it was bad for the country because it added to the debt burden of the bill.”

She was visibly displeased with that assessment.

“My response is I have an obligation to the people of the state of Alaska, and I live up to that every single day. I fight for my state’s interests and I make sure that Alaskans are understood. I work hard to take care of a state that has more unique situations, more unique people and it’s just different. When people suggest that federal dollars go to one of our 50 states in a ‘bailout,’ I find that offensive.” 

Republicans cross Trump at their own peril

The battle over the “big, beautiful bill” also offered a political reminder: Crossing Trump comes with a high political price. 

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) announced on Sunday that he would not seek reelection next year, after losing his fight against Medicaid cuts in the package and voting against a procedural hurdle to move the bill forward. 

Tillis long stood as the Republican senator facing the toughest reelect in 2026, especially if North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D) takes the plunge. 

Trump only carried the state by three points last year, and the upcoming midterm cycle may not be friendly to Republicans. Navigating a viable path to re-election without enraging Trump proved too tall a challenge for Tillis, who warned Sunday night that Republicans would pay a price for the Medicaid cuts. 

Trump, who carried Republicans to a rare triumvirate and stakes much of his reputation on the megabill, ripped Tillis on social media, threatening to recruit a primary challenger. But Tillis had already texted Trump that he would not seek re-election.

The drama served as a warning sign to others on the ballot next year, including Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Rand Paul (R-Ky.), who also voted no on Tuesday. 

There’s a reason why Sens. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) and Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) didn’t oppose Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth despite their respective reservations. 

As the adage puts it: It’s better to be feared than loved, and that’s been the case so far with Trump’s push for his legislative agenda. 

Bumpy road ahead in the House

The Senate’s road to passage was a difficult one. The challenges now facing House leaders are looking just as daunting.

The Hill reported earlier on Tuesday that at least six House GOP members are prepared to vote “no” on the Senate’s bill, presenting major troubles for Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) after he pleaded with the upper chamber to leave much of the House bill intact.

That did not happen. If House Republicans hope to meet the Independence Day deadline, they face little option outside of passing the Senate’s version. Any changes in the House would force the Senate to pass the bill once again, which senators want no part of after their grueling vote-a-rama this week. 

House GOP members are not happy with what the Senate has done to the bill.

“On the text chains, on the phone calls, everyone is complaining,” one moderate House Republican told The Hill as Senate votes going on Monday. “There’s a few little provisions people will say something positive about, but no one is happy with the Senate version.” 

“It’s amazing to a lot of us — how did it get so much f‑‑‑ing worse?” they added.

The dynamics force Johnson — with the help of Trump — to attempt to pull another rabbit out of the hat, not for the first time this year. 

The Speaker can afford to lose three GOP members at most assuming full attendance and universal Democratic opposition.

Will House conservatives follow Senate colleagues?

Much of the drama in the days leading up to the vote-a-rama centered on a trio of conservatives — Sens. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), Rick Scott (R-Fla.) and Mike Lee (R-Utah) — as they railed against the lack of spending cuts in the package and sought to cull Medicaid further. 

But when push came to shove, their amendment aimed at cutting an additional $313 in federal Medicaid spending couldn’t get the votes and never reached the floor. 

In the end, they got very little for voting “yes” despite making a lot of noise. 

With the bill now heading to the House, the question stands: Are House conservatives about to similarly get rolled?

If the past is prologue, the answer would be yes. 

At every step of the process in the lower chamber, hardliners — including many in the House Freedom Caucus — aired strong opposition to the legislation at hand, vowing to vote against it. But shortly before the vote, a call from Trump or a visit to the White House changed their tune.

House conservatives are already grumbling. On Tuesday, shortly after the Senate passed their bill, Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) said he would oppose the measure at all steps of the process — in the House Rules Committee, to adopt the rule on the floor, and for final passage. Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) said he has “major problems” with the measure.

But in the same comments, Roy recognized the pressure he will be under from the president to get the job done, especially as Friday’s deadline fast approaches.

“If you look at the totality of this, I don’t believe this delivers what the president, what the  administration, were working to deliver on,” Roy said. “I know why they’re going to lobby for it, I know why the president’s gonna push for it. They want to see it get done, and I get it. But I think we have more work to do.”

Emily Brooks contributed.

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