Rate cuts by year-end
Fed: 66 bps (79% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 25 bps (87% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 53 bps (73% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 33 bps (62% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 80 bps (91% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)RBNZ: 32 bps (78% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) SNB: 12 bps (78% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)BoJ: 15 bps (97% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
The most notable change is of course on the Fed. The catalyst was dovish comments from Fed's Bowman last Monday where she even suggested a rate cut in July if inflation were to be muted. She's been a hawk until then, so the market took those comments as a signal.
We have the US ISM PMIs, the US NFP and the US CPI before the July FOMC meeting and those reports will influence interest rates expectations.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com. Read More Details
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