Israel’s stated aim in its war with Iran was to “eliminate” the Islamic Republic’s nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities. And at this point, this is the only goal that President Trump officially espouses now after U.S. strikes have taken place.
And that goal may satisfy the military side of the ledger. But politically, the confrontation ends only with the regime’s collapse. It is critical that Americans understand why and resolve to embrace the menu of non-military policy options available to them to effect this outcome.
The joint operation may have delayed Iran’s nuclear program by years, yet airstrikes will never eliminate the regime’s nuclear aspirations. The Islamic Republic will rebuild its program, which it views not as a bargaining chip, but rather as the insurance policy of an ideologically driven elite that believes survival hinges on the strategic immunity that a nuclear weapon provides.
This conviction cannot be negotiated out of them, no matter how comforting it is for Westerners to pretend otherwise. Indeed, every previous cycle of sanctions, secret enrichment, incremental deals, and breakout has ended in the same place: with the regime richer and closer to a bomb, and the rest of the world more fatigued.
Until the Israeli operation, this cycle appeared to be on a repeat loop. Only 24 hours before it started, Omani mediators and Trump himself, were still touting a sixth U.S.-Iran meeting in Muscat for the following Sunday. By dawn Friday, the negotiating table had been overturned by Israeli missiles enforcing Trump’s 60-day deadline.
Meanwhile, the regime’s social foundations have been eroding. Official figures put year-on-year inflation at around 40 percent, and the rial has slid to almost 900,000 per dollar in the open market, losing more than a third of its value since January. Youth joblessness is still above twenty percent and labor-force participation keeps shrinking. Nationwide labor strike networks that outlasted three rounds of repression, in 2019, 2022 and 2024, have re-emerged, this time spearheaded by truckers and bakers. A public that already registers its contempt through mass protests, strikes, and election boycotts now watches the clerics squander millions on ballistic theatrics while Israel penetrates Tehran at its core.
When nationwide protests reignite, Iranians will not take to the streets to demand a better deal in Muscat. Rather, they will continue to demand an end to clerical rule.
Pre-strike warnings that U.S. involvement in the operation would spawn quagmires and body bags have been disproven. Yet a lasting victory requires an equally disciplined and non-kinetic campaign that erodes the regime’s legitimacy, finances, grip on information, and arms of repression.
Congress has drafted the blueprint. The bipartisan Maximum Support Act would redirect U.S. policy from shuttle diplomacy to tangible help for the Iranian people.
The U.S. can pierce the regime’s digital curtain with satellite direct-to-cell service and mass VPN distribution, ensuring videos from within Iran keep flowing and loosening Tehran’s grip on the information space. Extending visa and asset bans to the spouses and children of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Basij, and Law Enforcement Command chiefs, would strengthen U.S. national security while sowing fractures inside the security apparatus.
So would the establishment of a confidential relocation channel for officials willing to provide evidence of regime crimes, offering would-be defectors a lifeline and encouraging further elite fragmentation. This becomes increasingly relevant as fear among regime officials and scientists reaches an all-time high.
Tehran has long treated its own population as a liability. When crisis shakes the Islamic Republic, the response is depressingly familiar: detention, torture, and execution. ‑ceasefire dragnet, already marked by the arrest of hundreds and the targeting of religious and ethnic minorities, is likely only the opening act of what could become the regime’s bloodiest escalation yet.
The U.S. and its allies should act before the gallows can be built. They should diplomatically isolate the regime, sanction the judges and jailers who direct this terror, and expedite efforts to keep the internet alive inside Iran. At minimum, a clear public warning, echoing President Trump’s 2020 tweet — “DO NOT KILL YOUR PROTESTERS ... the USA is watching ... turn your internet back on” — would give Iranians vital moral encouragement.
The Obama-era echo chamber created a false binary choice between a bad deal and total war. Today, Tucker Carlson and others are recycling this fallacy. But objectors from those weary of the long and expensive quagmires in Iraq and Afghanistan should be eager to adopt these policies. These measures cost the U.S. no troops, no treasure, and no strategic distraction from other theaters, yet they strike at the regime’s central nervous system.
With respect to concerns about public U.S. support undermining the internal legitimacy of the protestors, these are understandable but misbegotten. Trump himself dispelled this notion during his first term, when his tweets in Persian went viral. Iranians already chant, “Our enemy is here, they lie when they say it is America.” Iran has among the most pro-American dissidents anywhere in the world. Washington must not distance itself from any upcoming protest movements, as that would only feed the narrative that no great power truly backs the Iranian people.
In the regime’s eyes, the U.S. is already implicated. Sanctions, snap‑back debates, and now the air campaign are factoring into Tehran’s domestic calculus. Pretending neutrality or turning a blind eye simply defaults to a policy of helping the regime survive. This is why Iranians have begged Trump not to make a deal with the regime, with one spray-painting on a wall inside the country, “President Trump, don’t sell us out!”
The recent attacks have bought time, yet that time can quickly evaporate. The current window can be squandered attempting to resurrect a charred negotiation file, or it can be invested in the only strategy with a chance to shut the nuclear program for good.
The Iranian people will be ready. And the U.S. should ensure they have every tool they need when they are ready. Military considerations aside, there are ways to do so without risking a U.S. soldier or spending a dollar of U.S. taxpayer money. Give them the chance.
Andrew Ghalili is the Senior Policy Analyst at the National Union for Democracy in Iran. Read More Details
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