A dirty bomb or “radiological dispersal device” combines conventional explosives with radioactive material rather than being an actual nuclear weapon.
However, a leaked report from the Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency suggests that the strikes did not destroy the sites and likely set back Iran’s nuclear programme by only a few months.
David Albright, President and founder of the Institute for Science and International Security, has also pointed to intelligence evidence that more enriched uranium stocks were in the rubble of the damaged nuclear sites than believed previously.
Technicians work inside of a uranium conversion facility producing unit March 30, 2005 just outside the city of Isfahan (Photo by Getty Images)
Technical knowledge gained from its missile and drone programmes would support the development of a possible bomb, he said.
However, John Erath, Senior Policy Director at the Washington, DC think-tank, the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, points out that if Iran were considering building a dirty bomb, “it’s kind of wasting a lot of enrichment”.
Dr Marion Messmer, an expert in nuclear weapons policy at the Chatham House think-tank in London, said that although building a dirty bomb was possible for Iran, it would be “a waste” when Iran’s goal is a strategic nuclear arsenal.
‘Strategic suicide for Iran’
“Iran is highly unlikely to deploy a dirty bomb in Israel or any foreign country. The costs — political, military, and reputational — would be catastrophic,” said Dr Krieg.
“Iran has historically prioritised strategic ambiguity and deniability. A dirty bomb attack would eliminate those buffers, triggering massive international retaliation and risking regime collapse.
In the region, this would likely unsettle the Gulf, bring an end to mediation attempts by Qatar or Oman, and deepen Iran’s isolation. It might also trigger military action or provide grounds for regime change, Krieg noted.
“Dirty bombs offer little military utility; their main effect is psychological. Iran already has more effective tools — ballistic missiles, drones, and cyber operations — to project power and retaliate without crossing red lines,” Krieg noted.
A dirty bomb could potentially be used for other purposes, “but only in extremely narrow contexts,” Krieg said.
“Iran might consider a controlled detonation as a deterrent signal, demonstrating its capability without direct harm — akin to a nuclear test,” he said.
Numerous references to dirty bombs have appeared in recent history, but no country has actually used one in a military conflict.
Expertise gained from Iran’s missile and drone programs could help enable bomb development (Photo: Getty Images)Other dirty bomb terror plots, including the José Padilla case in the US, were foiled. Padilla, originally from Chicago, was arrested in 2002 on suspicion of plotting an attack and labelled by US authorities as an “enemy combatant”. After years of legal battles, Padilla was eventually convicted on terrorism charges.
Nuclear programme back in months
Regarding the missing 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium, Pavel Podvig, a senior researcher at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR), said the 60 per cent enrichment of was still enough for “reasonably good weapon material”.
While Iran has successfully enriched uranium through centrifuge cascades, Podvig stressed that Iran was still a “long way” off producing warheads. He said Iran would need to convert its current stash of uranium hexafluoride into metal, or uranium metal manufacture, and assemble a complete warhead.
Satellite image provided by Maxar Technologies shows damage at the Fordo enrichment facility in Iran after U.S. strikes, Sunday, June 22, 2025 (Photo: Maxar Technologies/AP)
Despite Iran lacking other capabilities, he suggested that it may be able to get its nuclear programme back up and running with “several months to a couple of years”, as the leaked Pentagon intelligence report has suggested.
Dr Messmer suggested that the only “credible deterrence” for Iran was now a nuclear arsenal following the devastating strikes.
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Darya Dolzikova, Proliferation and Nuclear Policy Senior Research Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi) in London: “We didn’t have a complete picture of whether Iran had all the necessary pieces to produce a nuclear weapon before these attacks; that assessment is even harder to make now.
“What remains unclear is the precise extent of that damage and what materials, equipment and capabilities have been salvaged.”
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