Rate cuts by year-end
Fed: 60 bps (81% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 24 bps (84% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 51 bps (62% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 31 bps (68% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 72 bps (90% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)RBNZ: 33 bps (77% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) SNB: 13 bps (75% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)BoJ: 13 bps (97% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
We can see that the market turned a little bit more dovish on the Fed given the recent members' comments. The most notable one was Fed's Bowman change of stance on Monday. She's been maintaining her hawkish stance for quite some time but on Monday she even opened the door for a July cut in case inflation were to stay muted.
Therefore, mark on your calendar the next NFP and CPI days as they will be very important for the market and the Fed. If they both come on the softer side, we could see the market even pricing in a July cut.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com. Read More Details
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