The Nato leaders are due to dine with the Dutch King, Willem-Alexander, at his palace before pledging to hike defence spending to a combined 5 per cent of GDP by 2032, from the current 2 per cent – and they are ready for Trump to bask in the credit for the turnaround.
However, having secured a ceasefire this morning between Israel and Iran following what he called the “12 Day War”, Trump may decide that he can use the Nato summit as a platform to boast of his win in the Middle East.
Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte, right, in The Hague, Netherlands. Allied leaders will gather to attend the Nato summit on Tuesday and Wednesday (Photo: Omar Havana/Getty)
The policy shift responds to warnings from Rutte that “Russia could attack a Nato member within five years”. Most members have endorsed the move, but Spain is still holding out against, calling it “unreasonable and counterproductive”. Meanwhile, Nato’s Italian military chief has cautioned that the Israel‑Iran escalation could spill into Europe, amplifying the sense of urgency.
For his part, Rutte has been pragmatic: emphasising alliance unity while aiming to offer Trump a political win. Europe’s compromise – the 3.5 per cent plus 1.5 per cent – is a strategic recalibration that allows broader expenditures to count toward the target. Earlier this month, Rutte went further, saying Nato members had to deliver a “quantum leap” in their collective capabilities, including a 400 per cent jump in air and missile defence.
Keir Starmer with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky at 10 Downing Street on Monday. The Nato summit is a chance to shore up his position as leader of the Coalition of the Willing supporting Ukraine (Photo: Jaimi Joy/AFP)
For Sir Keir Starmer, the summit is a chance to shore up his Nato credibility and his position as a leader of the so-called Coalition of the Willing supporting Ukraine. Defence Secretary John Healey has already championed a 5 per cent spending target, warning of a “more dangerous, unpredictable world”. Yet domestic pressures persist: pledging billions more to defence may test Labour’s social investment pledges.
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But with Trump and his lieutenants – including Vice President JD Vance and Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth – threatening to pull back US support from Europe, Nato members are keen to show they are pulling their weight.
Nicu Popescu, a former Romanian foreign minister and fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said the focus on numbers risked obscuring more strategic considerations about what Nato needs in the 21st century.
“Don’t frame it just on GDP as you need a lot of cheap stocks,” he said. “You need smart stuff, but you also need a lot of cheap, big, old and stupid stuff. You can see that with Russia, which has been using tanks from the 1960s in Ukraine.”
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