Donald Trump’s long-standing hostility to Nato, once dismissed as bluster, now poses a real and present danger. His repeated threats to withdraw the US from the alliance if re-elected have rattled European capitals and triggered a reckoning over the continent’s military reliance on Washington.
Founded in 1949, Nato was designed to keep the US – the world’s dominant military power – engaged in European security, primarily to counter the Soviet threat in Eastern Europe. Trump’s America First pledge has helped to cast doubt over that engagement. And his transactional and impatient diplomatic style is only adding to the uncertainty.
Lord Ricketts, a former UK government national security adviser, believes Trump “won’t pull out entirely – there is no roadmap for this in the treaty – but he will likely ratchet down the US commitments”. How quickly that happens depends on Trump himself.
So, with all this going on in the background and Trump’s focus likely to be on Iran and Israel, what can – and should – Sir Keir Starmer do to try and keep the leader of Nato’s most important member state onside when the pair meet in the Netherlands on Tuesday?
Trump’s team have made clear they see Europe as not paying their way. The Signalgate group chat leaks revealed the strength of that feeling when Pete Hegseth, Secretary of Defense, told Vice-President JD Vance: “I fully share your loathing of European free-loading. It’s PATHETIC.”
But as Dr Karin von Hippel, former Director-General of the RUSI defence think-tank, suggests, it’s not only the amount of money that matters.
Convincing Trump that Western European powers can achieve the same nimble efficiency could help to persuade that him that it’s not the US doing all the work.
2. Get the messaging right to buy Europe more time
Trump’s impatience and form for sudden early departures means any transition toward greater European leadership must be carefully managed. Bristow believes Starmer must “convince Trump that it’s in the US interest for Nato countries to be capable allies and that they’ll work with him to achieve this”.
Lord Ricketts agrees: “Ideally, there would be a transitional period of five to eight years if the US seeks to reduce its role, allowing Europe time to plug the financial hole.”
“The idea that Starmer, Macron or even Zelenskyy could argue Trump into changing his mind plays incredibly badly in Washington,” says Apps. “It often seems like Europeans are telling the Americans to do more, without offering anything meaningful in return and at worst, it implies the US President needs to be walked back to a sensible course by smarter Europeans.”
4. Appeal to Trump’s peacemaking sensibilities
Trump wants a Nobel Peace Prize – badly. “They will never give me a Nobel Peace Prize,” he told Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu in March 2025. “It’s too bad. I deserve it.” In his inaugural address in January he said his “proudest legacy will be that of a peacemaker and unifier”. Would Trump want to be remembered as the man who triggered a Russian invasion of Nato territory?
Bronwen Maddox, chief executive of foreign policy think-tank Chatham House, advocates a strategy with an emphasis on unity and the threat posed by Putin: “Starmer can show solidarity with other Nato members about the importance of containing Russia – and trying to establish that force doesn’t pay,” she says.
5. Don’t let Trump feel left out
Will there be a pre-summit meet for the “coalition of the willing” that Starmer formed back in February to all get on the same page before the official business begins in The Hague?
Ricketts thinks the coalition will be alive to the risk. “I don’t think European leaders will want to meet as a group without Trump,” he says. “That would look like conspiring behind his back. So I think the networking will go on bilaterally or in discreet huddles.”
Ricketts says that a win for Starmer at next week’s summit will be “a sense of unity in Nato [and] avoiding rows and splits”. No pressure then, Prime Minister.
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