Goldman Sachs: What we expect from today's June FOMC ...Middle East

Key Points:

The Fed is expected to stay on hold, reiterating that uncertainty remains elevated and risks are two-sided.

SEP Forecast Adjustments:

GDP growth revised down to 1.5%

Dot Plot Outlook:

2026: Two additional cuts to 3.375%

Long-run neutral rate unchanged at 3.0%

While tariff assumptions have risen, the recent de-escalation and soft inflation reports should temper forecast revisions.

Peak summer tariff effects on inflation will still be too fresh for a cut earlier in the year.

Goldman expects the June FOMC to hold rates steady and project a cautious, gradual easing path, beginning in December. While SEP adjustments may suggest modest deterioration in the 2025 outlook, the Fed will avoid bold moves and emphasize ongoing uncertainty. USD impact likely muted unless Powell signals less caution than expected.

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This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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