Key Points:
President Trump announced the US will notify partners of new unilateral tariffs within two weeks, reviving trade war fears ahead of the 9 July deadline.
Diminished Risk-Off Demand for USD:
The market's reluctance to buy USD in traditional risk-off conditions signals a weakening of its safe-haven appeal.
EUR/USD is closely tracking the Bloomberg Fed speak index.
Capital Flow Implications:
The shift in sentiment is fueling demand for alternatives, particularly the euro.
With EUR/USD breaking above 1.15 and holding that level in the face of geopolitical shocks, SocGen now sees 1.20 as attainable sooner than previously expected. Trade uncertainty, a softening Fed stance, and fading USD safe-haven demand form a potent mix for continued euro strength.
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