Oil market factoring in a higher risk premiumIran says Israel and America will pay a very heavy priceTrump convenes the National Security Council meeting at 11am on FridayFurther reports that Israeli air force has begun a second wave of air strikes against IranReports of another wave of Israeli strikes on Iran has begunUS warns Iran not to target U.S. interests or personnelUnconfirmed: Iranian jet fighters taking off, Iranian ballistic missile launches reportedIsraeli PM Netanyahu- We targeted Iran’s main enrichment facility in NatanzReports that Israel has detected missile launches from IranIsraeli official confirms attack on Iran - Iran's nuclear program an 'existential threat'Israel’s Air Force conducted a strike in Iran - updateMarket response to Israel attack on Iran: Yen up, Oil rockets higher.Israel says has launched a pre-emptive attack against Iran -Explosions heard in Tehran - reports are sketchyFinancial Times reports Israeli strike on Iran could come today, Friday 13 June ... ps. this was great info from the FT, gave us around a 10 minutes heads up to a Friday attack imminent while everyone else was looking at Sunday
Other:
PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1772 (vs. estimate at 7.1685)Japan upper house election to be held on July 20 (Japanese media report)ICYMI: Goldman Sachs lowered its estimate of a US recession in the next 12 months to 30%Deutsche Bank warns trade tensions threaten USD’s funding edge, sees rotation outNew Zealand PM Luxon to visit China and EU for trade and security talksJP Morgan "estimate oil prices could surge to the $120-130/bbl" (Iran worst-case scenario)New Zealand Manufacturing PMI for May 2025: 47.5 (prior 53.3)The latest Federal Reserve financial stress reading has fallenUS told Israel it won’t participate in an Israeli strike on IranTrump Expands 50% tariffs to appliances starting June 23WSJ: Israeli attack on Iran could come within days, U.S. and Israeli officials sayRole of Musk's SpaceX in Golden Dome shield in question after dumping by TrumpLutnick says China tariff pause likely won’t be extendedTrade ideas thread - Friday, 13 June, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideasAmong those killed was General Hossein Salami, chief of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), in what analysts say is a direct strike on the regime’s strategic command structure. Former top security official Ali Shamkhani was also reported injured, though Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei is said to be unharmed. The targeting of such high-level figures signals a broadening of the Israeli operation beyond nuclear infrastructure, with the intent to weaken or decapitate Iran’s retaliatory capacity.
Iran has vowed severe retaliation, warning that both Israel and the United States (I bolded this because despite all the disavowals from the US, they'll be targeted) will “pay a huge cost,” although the U.S. has denied any role in the strikes. In response to the escalation, Washington has locked down its embassy in Tehran, initiated evacuation planning for American citizens in the region, and scheduled a National Security Council meeting led by Trump that will not begin until 11am Friday, US Eastern time.
Other markets also responded. Yen initially strengthened but USD/JPY has since fully recovered. AUD, NZD, EUR, GBP, CAD are all weaker against the US. Gold is higher, enjoying its 'haven' status. US equity index futures have been been hard hit, both ES and NQ down around 1.5%.
The focus has been, and will continue to be, on oil - Brent crude up
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com. Read More Details
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