Despite that, there has been no sign of slowing consumer spending.
Overall spending remained solid in May, but key categories showed signs of cooling compared to April. Discretionary services continued to lead with spending rising 1.2% from April. Essentials followed closely up 1.1%, while discretionary goods posted a more modest gain of 0.5%. Despite the slower momentum, all three categories remained in positive territory, pointing to continued underlying strength in household demand.
I've been following this data set for awhile (it's about 5 years old) and it's proving to be a great forecaster for Canadian retail sales.
One caveat could be that spending rose on a pull-forward ahead of tariffs, as apparel demand was high. Still, there is no sign of a consumer-led recession in Canada and I think we could see a Canada-US trade deal in the very-near future.
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