Group F at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup contains Borussia Dortmund, Fluminense, Mamelodi Sundowns and Ulsan. Who will qualify for the last 16?
The first edition of the expanded FIFA Club World Cup takes place in the United States of America between 14 June and 13 July.
Group F gets underway on 17 June with Fluminense taking on Borussia Dortmund at the MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, where the semi-finals and final will be held. Later the same day, Ulsan get their campaign started against Mamelodi Sundowns.
While it seems highly unlikely the eventual winners will come from Group F, you always have a chance as long as you’re in it.
Here, we look at the Opta supercomputer’s predictions to see who are likeliest to reach the last 16, and who can be expected to go furthest.
Club World Cup Group F Predictions: The Quick Stats
Borussia Dortmund topped Group F in almost three-quarters (74.9%) of the 10,000 tournament simulations. Mamelodi Sundowns are rated the likeliest to join the Bundesliga side in the last 16 (47.1%). Fluminense aren’t far behind (39.4%) but it will be a big ask for Ulsan (20.8%) to reach the next stage.Borussia Dortmund will be extremely confident of reaching at least the last 16 of the revamped Club World Cup, with the German club seemingly by far the strongest of the four Group F teams.
This will be Dortmund’s first outing on the world stage since appearing in the 1997 Intercontinental Cup, which they won thanks to a 2-0 win over Cruzeiro.
While the 2024-25 season hasn’t been all rosy for BVB, they do enter this tournament in excellent spirits. They’ve won each of their last six games in all competitions, scoring at least three goals in every match and 20 in total across those fixtures.
Even if that run is unlikely to continue throughout the summer, it backs up the Opta supercomputer’s assertion that Dortmund have a 92.7% probability of reaching the round of 16. They are at least 120 places above the three other Group F teams in the Opta Power Rankings, meaning it should be relatively comfortable for them.
They’re also the only one of the four clubs in this group to be given more than 0.2% probability of winning the whole tournament.
It’s the Brazilians that the Opta supercomputer considers likeliest to join Dortmund in the next round. No, not the Brazilians, Fluminense; the Brazilians, Mamelodi Sundowns, nicknamed as such for their bright yellow jerseys. Many might’ve expected Flu to have the greater outlook, but Sundowns went through in 47.1% of the 10,000 tournament simulations.
Much may depend on how they respond to the disappointment of losing in the final of the CAF Champions League. Sundowns were beaten 3-2 on aggregate by Pyramids FC in the two-legged final, which concluded on 1 June.
However, they did win the 2024-25 PSL (South African Premiership) by a 12-point margin, taking the title for an eighth season in a row. Sundowns were fired to glory by possessing the top three scorers in the division.
Chief among them was Lucas Ribeiro Costa, with 16 goals. He was ably supported by Iqraam Rayners (14) and Arthur Sales (eight, level with two others). They frequently make up the front three of manager Miguel Cardoso’s 4-3-3 formation and should pose problems for the weaker sides in the group.
Fluminense featured in the last final of the Club World Cup’s previous guise, losing 4-0 to Manchester City in 2023.
That appearance came on the back of winning the Copa Libertadores for the first time in their history. Fluminense were unable to defend that title and didn’t qualify for the 2025 edition, illustrating how they have fallen away since last appearing on the world stage.
Things might be looking up, though, as they are only four points off the top of the Brasileiro through the first 11 matchdays of the 2025 season.
An interesting aspect of their start to the season is that their 15 league goals have been shared between 12 players. Kevin Serna, with three, is the only player to have scored more than once.
Their squad features one very familiar face for fans of European football in the form of Thiago Silva. The veteran certainly has a job on his hands to guide his teammates deep into the competition, as their chances of featuring in the round of 16 are 39.4%.
The group outsiders are Ulsan from South Republic, with the supercomputer rating their chances of playing in the knockout phase at 20.8%.
While they have twice won the AFC Champions League, the last of those titles was back in 2020. Their campaign in that competition ended early this season after winning just one and losing six of their seven matches in the first stage.
Their record in the Club World Cup’s previous format doesn’t inspire hope either. Their two previous appearances saw Ulsan finish sixth, which is an indirect yet polite way of saying they have lost all four matches they played.
They are at least accustomed to domestic success, having won K League 1 for the previous three years. Ulsan are slightly off the pace this season but may have an asset in Brazilian forward Erick Farias.
He has eight league goals in 2025 and faced Fluminense four times with his former club, Juventude, last year. Nevertheless, Ulsan are understandably the Group F underdogs.
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Club World Cup 2025: Group F Preview and Predictions Opta Analyst.
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