The Arizona Diamondbacks made the World Series with a three-man rotation, navigating the 2023 season with Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly spearheading a starting group without much stability behind them.
The D-backs sported one of the worst starting staffs statistically last season in large part due to the injuries sustained by Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez, Gallen and Ryne Nelson, along with struggles from Jordan Montgomery. They still won 89 games and should have made the postseason.
The Texas Rangers in 2023 won the World Series (sorry to bring it up) even after their big-ticket free agent starting pitcher Jacob deGrom underwent season-ending Tommy John surgery. The New York Yankees currently lead the American League East with their ace, Gerrit Cole, out for the year with Tommy John surgery.
All of this to say the Diamondbacks’ season is not over with ace Corbin Burnes set to undergo Tommy John surgery next week, there is precedent for teams overcoming this pitcher injury epidemic. But what has already been a turbulent season with a healthy Burnes has gotten a lot tougher.
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Burnes signed the most lucrative free agent contract in franchise history as a four-time All-Star and Cy Young winner. He was really looking the part in May, too. He allowed six earned runs in 31.2 innings over his last five starts before something was clearly wrong on Sunday.
He is not only out for this season, but his injury recovery and rehab will cut well into 2026.
Burnes signed a six-year, $210 million deal with an opt-out after Year 2. Gallen and Kelly are both free agents after this year and will be thrust into trade rumors if the Diamondbacks do not prove they can contend without Burnes. The rotation looking at 2026 has many questions.
For the time being, Arizona has a starting five of Gallen, Kelly, Brandon Pfaadt, Rodriguez and Nelson. Montgomery is also out for the year after Tommy John surgery. The internal depth includes Cristian Mena, Tommy Henry, Bryce Jarvis and Yilber Diaz, with more prospects making their way through the system.
The rotation is similar to what it projected out to be before that fateful December night, when reports surfaced that Burnes had agreed to come to Arizona with no smoke to warn baseball fans. There was reason for optimism then, but what about now?
“Corbin Burnes jumped into an already very good, in my opinion, starting rotation,” Lovullo told Arizona Sports’ Burns & Gambo. “I feel like this is a very capable group with Zac Gallen throwing the ball the way he did the other night.
“Merrill’s been unbelievable with the type of year he’s having. You’re looking at one and two right there. That’s gonna keep you in a lot of ballgames and then stop bad runs. You’re always looking for a stopper.”
How is the Diamondbacks’ rotation performing?
Those preseason expectations have not all played out, as this had not been a great season for the D-backs’ rotation. A starting pitcher ERA of 4.45 is 24th in the league.
Kelly, apropos to his nickname, has been a mainstay, someone who has delivered seven innings in three of his last five starts with a season ERA of 3.43. That is right on par for his ERA since the start of the 2022 campaign, which is 3.45. There is a consistency and control to Kelly’s game the team can count on. The wild card with him is leg cramping that has popped up over the last three seasons, but he’s gone over a month without issue.
Gallen has not enjoyed the same level of steadiness. Lovullo gave Gallen the Opening Day start over Burnes, and Gallen has struggled to string quality outings together all year. His 5.14 ERA is way worse than his season-long numbers from any other point in his MLB career.
He’s also had starts that show his upside. In his last appearance on Tuesday, Gallen threw seven innings with one earned run, attacking the zone with his fastball and drawing whiffs with his curveball in Atlanta. That combination has been his calling card, but this year command issues have led to an increased walk rate and put him in tough spots. When he’s executing, he’s proven over the last seven years he can give you top-level production.
Gallen is perhaps the X-factor for the rest of the season with Burnes shelved, but there is a case for Rodriguez.
Rodriguez is now the highest-paid player who is still active on the team for this season. He signed a four-year, $80 million contract ahead of the 2024 season, one of the biggest deals handed out that offseason.
And his D-backs tenure has not gone well so far. He made 10 starts last year due to injury, and his ERA this season is a rough 6.70. He started the year fine with a 4.40 ERA and 2.80 FIP through five starts, but his last four outings before hitting the IL ballooned his numbers. He returned on Friday. Can this reset put the veteran back on track?
Then there’s Pfaadt, who put together a solid first two months but is scuffling. He allowed a combined 13 runs over his last two starts. Execution woes piled up, as the D-backs need their recently-extended young pitcher to fight through this.
“It’s probably a combination of things,” Lovullo explained. “Not throwing the ball where he wants, not landing it where he wants, not sequencing the right way. And then overall just big misses in the middle of the zone. Those types of pitches, I don’t care how good you are, get squared up by big league hitters.”
Nelson has been shuffled around between the bullpen and rotation. As a starter, he broke out in the second half last season after refining his arsenal, finding more answers than trying to throw his heater past hitters. That development kept him on the roster even without a rotation spot entering the season, and the club worked to keep him stretched out.
Of course, teams are connected, and the Diamondbacks will need to help their pitchers with improved defense and production from the bullpen to make a run. Their troubles with this are identifiable. At 31-31, they have opportunities ahead to continue trending upwards and compete.
It starts with starting pitching to set tones for games, keep them on rhythm and give a good offense chances.
The five in line now have shown they are capable of better days. Whether they get there may determine whether the D-backs play competitive games in September or pivot.
Diamondbacks having trouble with big contracts for pitchers
Perhaps Burnes will be a Diamondback for the long haul and have a great tenure. But it’s hard not to think of the dubious history of Arizona signing big-name pitchers over the last 20 years.
Montgomery did not work out, and the jury is out on Rodriguez despite a rocky start. The Madison Bumgarner experience went poorly quickly, and Zack Greinke had a bumpy first season before making three straight All-Star teams.
Signing Burnes was an all-in move to compete with the Dodgers and Padres in the daunting NL West. The move was lauded when it happened, a mid-market club pushing its payroll to win when others shied away.
Would this latest hitch change anything in regards to their willingness to pay for pitching? Perhaps it depends on how this season unfolds, especially considering Gallen’s and Kelly’s contract statuses.
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