But the conservative nationalist Karol Nawrocki’s victory in Poland’s presidential runoff election on Sunday is a huge blow to Poland’s pro-European trajectory – and to the ability of Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s centrist coalition to govern at all.
His campaign, steeped in Catholic nationalism and anti-EU rhetoric, promised to halt Tusk’s reform agenda and “restore sovereignty” from the perceived overreach of Berlin and Brussels. Tusk, Nawrocki said, has “a monopoly of evil power.”
Nawrocki, his wife Marta and family greet supporters as exit polls were announced on tv (Photo: Wojtek Radwanski/AFP)
On Monday evening, Tusk vowed to call a confidence vote following Nawrocki’s victory, and insisted that the presidential elections “have not changed and will change nothing”.
Since taking office in 2023, Tusk has attempted to undo PiS’s packing of courts and independent institutions with its cronies, but he has been stymied by the outgoing president, Andrzej Duda, who is also backed by PiS.
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“A comprehensive restoration of judicial independence is now vanishing from the table. Tough times ahead.”
It comes despite a series of elections – in Canada, Australia and Romania – in which the hard-right populist candidates saw their prospect damaged by their proximity to the US president.
The main reason for his victory seems disaffection with Tusk’s government.
Trzaskowski appeared positive earlier in the evening – but his pro-Brussels platform was narrowly rejected (Photo Omar Marques/Getty Images)The election will cripple Tusk’s efforts to bring Poland back into the European mainstream after a decade of drift. Billions in EU recovery and cohesion funds – released on the condition of judicial reform – now hang in the balance.
This political stalemate could also catalyse a broader crisis. With Nawrocki emboldened, opposition MPs are expected to target the weakest links in Tusk’s diverse coalition – a blend of liberals, conservatives, and agrarians – as potential defectors. Should the coalition splinter, early elections could ensue.
Tusk now faces an uphill battle, as anti-EU forces are emboldened (Photo: Kacper Pempel/Reuters)Beyond domestic deadlock, Nawrocki’s win signals a shift in Poland’s international posture. His rhetoric – warning against Poland becoming a “province of a federalising EU” – has drawn praise from fellow nationalists like Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and France’s Marine Le Pen.
Markets have noticed. The Polish stock market dipped following Nawrocki’s victory. The zloty weakened. Investors, who had returned with enthusiasm after Tusk’s 2023 win, are again uneasy.
Nawrocki’s win promises a weakened, paralysed government, a chill in EU-Polish relations, a boost for far-right populism in Europe; and a battered reputation for a country that, only two years ago, looked poised to lead the EU’s eastern renewal.
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