Key Points:
Gold fell from a record USD 3,500/oz as easing geopolitical tensions and trade optimism reduced safe haven demand.
Q1 US GDP contracted by 0.3% (saar)—the first Q1 contraction since 2022.
Monetary Policy & Real Rates:
Lower nominal rates and rising inflation will compress real rates, a traditional tailwind for gold.
Total demand rose 1% y/y to 1,206t—the highest Q1 since 2016.
Central banks bought 244t, still above average despite a quarterly drop.
Scrap supply remained weak despite record prices, suggesting consumers are holding for further upside.
ANZ remains bullish on gold, projecting USD 3,600/oz by year-end. They see USD 3,000–3,200/oz as a key support zone where fresh investment demand is likely to re-emerge, driven by persistent macro uncertainty, accommodative policy expectations, and favorable real rate dynamics.
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