You can write about this stuff over and over again. You can print page after page and commit sentence after sentence, but the cold reality of the words still strikes you like a slap to the face. The brutal, remorseless logic of what is happening is almost impossible to bear. And yet, if we have any chance of getting through this period with our principles intact, it will be by speaking honestly and precisely about what is taking place.
The core concession it makes to Russia is to grant formal US recognition of the Crimea, which Vladimir Putin invaded in 2014. People occasionally like to adopt a mock-realist tone and insist that Russia was always going to end up with Crimea. It was occupied before the current hostilities, so granting it to Russia would recognise what’s been an on-the-ground reality for a decade.
Ukraine has rejected this proposal. Its fight for Crimea is not just about its territory but about the territory of every state in Europe and the safety of every citizen in Europe. If Crimea is handed to Russia, the message is clear: you can invade, you can murder, you can terrorise, and you can ethnically cleanse. And then, when you’re done, the international community will recognise your achievement. It is an invitation to tyrants everywhere to do as they please.
Of course, he has. He’s not getting everything he wants, but he’s getting everything he needs.
square IAN DUNT
The Trump-Putin call confirms it: Europe faces Russia aloneRead More
Trump’s next concessions to Russia are to remove all US sanctions on the country and open up unprecedented degrees of US-Russian cooperation. This is the removal of the chief Russian vulnerability.
There is a lively debate about how badly pummelled it is. Some believe it can survive its economic problems fine. Some believe it is reaching a crisis point, but it is unclear when it will hit – perhaps in five years, three, or one. Others think it is on the brink of financial disaster. The middle view is the most popular but is also the most vague.
If enacted, US and Chinese financial support would flood into Russia, rebuilding its economy and replenishing its military. Frozen Russian assets would be returned, removing potential funding schemes to help Ukraine repair. So, of course, Putin is willing to freeze along the current front line. He gets the chance to build back and can restart the invasion later, with the sure knowledge that a Trumpified US will recognise whichever territorial gains he secures in the second wave.
There is a supposed “security guarantee”, but no details about how it would work or any mention of US involvement. It states that Europeans will do some peacekeeping – a recognition of Keir Starmer’s coalition of the willing, which the Trump administration has spent so much time disparaging.
Only Europe can now stand up to tyranny. Only Europe can guard the wall of civilisation against barbarism. We are going to have to give everything to equip Ukraine in that fight: money, technology, operational assistance. It will be painful. It will be thankless. It will come with no guarantees whatsoever about ultimate victory. But there are no other options. Either Europe stands for freedom, or it signs its own death warrant.
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