The latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates is subject to whatever tariff regime rules the day but it's a useful view on how long it will take for tariff effects to truly hit trade.
Their data shows that February saw 2.06 million TEUs handled (up 5.2% year-over-year), and March is projected at 2.14 million TEUs (up 11.1% year-over-year), the outlook darkens significantly from May onward (TEU stands for "Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit," which is the standard unit of measurement used in the shipping industry to quantify cargo capacity or volume):
May: Expected to fall to 1.66 million TEUs (-20.5% y/y ), ending 19 consecutive months of growthJune: Projected at 1.57 million TEUs (-26.6% y/y), the lowest volume since February 2023July: Forecast at 1.69 million TEUs (-27% y/y)August: Expected to be 1.7 million TEUs (-26.8% y/y)For me, the takeaway here is that we will have to wait until May to see trade as a real headwind to
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