Trump said that Iran “can’t have a nuclear weapon”, and that would be “trouble” if the talks don’t bear fruit.
Iran has said its nuclear programme “only serves peaceful purposes” and that “nuclear weapons have no place in our doctrine”.
However, it does have some of the capabilities needed to create a bomb, including the ballistic missiles that could theoretically be used to carry nuclear warheads, and uranium supplies.
“As of April 2025, Iran has a stockpile of enriched uranium which means that the country has enough material for around six to eight nuclear weapons, depending on warhead design and configuration, and further enrichening its stockpile to 80 to 90 per cent [the level needed for weapons].”
US President Donald Trump announced the talks during a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on 7 April (Photo: Saul Loeb/ AFP)
“If a decision were made by Iranian authorities to go for the nuclear weapons capability, the larger the amount of 60 per cent uranium in its stockpile, the more weapons material it could amass within a shorter span of time compared to keeping its stockpile at lower levels of enrichment.”
There are also indications that the Iranians were seeking to conduct a “cold test” – a test where the uranium is replaced by a surrogate material, so it is not a live bomb – but the programme was shut down before this happened.
Dr Rob Geist Pinfold, international security lecturer at King’s College London, said Iran’s nuclear programme had accelerated since the collapse of the 2015 agreement, and its breakout period [the time needed to produce a nuclear bomb] had “shortened significantly in recent years”.
But even if it has ramped up since 2015, Iran’s nuclear programme has experienced many setbacks, including airstrikes on facilities and the assassination of several of the programme’s nuclear scientists.
“While Iran’s missiles could in theory cover parts of Europe, it is very unlikely Iran would consider such a thing, especially if it only has a small number of warheads.”
Iran has been weakened by recent setbacks
Trump has given little detail about the goals or remit of his talks with Iran.
Trump may also want to reduce its ballistic missiles arsenal and its support for Russia in Ukraine, Janes said, but this would “almost certainly be rejected by Tehran as the basis for a nuclear deal”.
A Hezbollah drone being intercepted by Israeli air defences during the war that ended on 27 November (Photo: Jalaa Marey/AFP/Getty)
Dr Burcu Ozcelik, senior research fellow for Middle East security at the Royal United Services Institute, said Tehran’s current leadership was split on the question of nuclear weapons – and its approach to Trump.
“There is a divide in Iran on the question of how to approach the US and its allies on the question of its nuclear programme,” she said.
Damaged buildings at Iran’s Parchin military base outside Tehran, Iran, in October 2024. An Israeli attack on Iran damaged facilities at a secretive military base southeast of the Iranian capital that experts in the past have linked to Tehran’s nuclear weapons programme (Photo: Planet Labs PBC via AP)
A deal with the US would only be tolerable for Tehran if it gave “major” economic sanctions relief and allowed the development of a civilian nuclear programme, Janes researchers said.
“For a deal, Iran needs to try and bring lifting of sanctions to the table, and to ensure some kind of refrain on the side of the US from attacking key allies, though I’m not sure how realistic this is,” she said.
While heavy financial penalties are already in place, the US could launch new economic sanctions targeting Iran’s shipments of oil to China, which have been increasing since 2020 and given a “lifeline” to the regime, Janes said.
Trump has already hinted that he would launch airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, likely in partnership with Israel, should the talks fail to produce result.
US Central Command forces carry out airstrikes against Iranian-backed Houthi targets across Yemen (Photo : Centcom/ Handout/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Trump has ramped up strikes on the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen recently, ostensibly to prevent their shipping attacks, but perhaps also to flex the US’s military might ahead of negotiations with Iran.
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Read More“Instead, the US will claim that they can hold back Israel but will give the green light for a strike if Iran does not show flexibility in talks,” he said.
But the threat of military action could backfire and stall talks, Razak warned, making it hard for Iran to negotiate while the US is attacking its allies.
“Europe won’t be keen to pursue this so whether the US will strike out on its own, with Israel, is still hard to say, but is not unlikely if a deal is not reached,” Razak said.
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