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Goldman Sachs raises US recession probability to 45%, cuts 2025 growth forecastHowever, if the economy does fall into recession, Goldman anticipates a more aggressive policy response, with the Fed slashing rates by approximately 200 basis points over the next year.
Factoring in the increased likelihood of a recession, the bank’s weighted forecast now calls for a total of 130 basis points in rate cuts for 2025—up from 105 basis points previously. That outlook is now broadly aligned with current market expectations as of Friday's close.
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