In a note to clients, BofA strategists outlined a constructive outlook for the single currency, projecting it to reach $1.15 against the U.S. dollar by the end of 2025, and extend gains to $1.20 by the end of 2026.
BofA expects a combination of renewed tariffs and fiscal tightening to weigh on U.S. growth while keeping inflation pressures elevated — a scenario reminiscent of stagflation.
In contrast, the outlook for Europe is becoming more supportive. BofA points to signs of a shift in Germany’s traditionally cautious fiscal stance, with increased public investment and defence spending likely to support growth across the eurozone. These reforms, alongside broader EU-level fiscal coordination, could mark a structural inflection point for the region’s economic resilience.
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