Key Points:
GBP/USD
New Forecasts: 1.28 (3M), 1.32 (6M), 1.35 (12M)
Old Forecasts: 0.86 (3M), 0.85 (6M), 0.84 (12M)
2️⃣ Domestic Data and Political Factors Support GBP ?
Government messaging on deficit-neutral defense spending has helped restore investor confidence.
UK is less exposed to looming US tariffs, reducing downside risks relative to EUR.
4️⃣ Rate Differential Still Attractive ?
Conclusion:
Goldman Sachs now expects stronger GBP performance across both USD and EUR pairs, driven by UK macro resilience, limited tariff exposure, and constructive investor sentiment. With GBP/USD revised up to 1.35 and EUR/GBP expected to slide to 0.82 by 12 months, the bank sees sterling as well-positioned for further gains, especially relative to the Euro.
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