Today though, the FT reports that Trump is considering a two-step approach that would start with emergency powers and then shift to Section 338 tariffs. People familiar say autos could use a previous national security investigation. Finally, one approach could use Section 122 that would allow tariffs of 15% for up to 150 days.
Through all of it, no one really knows what to expect.
A recent Goldman survey of market participants estimates reciprocal tariffs in April will amount to a 9% reciprocal tariff rate but Goldman itself expects that the initial tariff rate could be double that, which would set the market up for a negative surprise.
I think that's a flimsy metric but there isn't much to go on right now and I think it's an important benchmark to set.
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